Iran pursues urgent diplomacy amid fears of Israeli retaliation

Iran’s government is in a state of heightened anxiety, actively engaging in urgent diplomatic initiatives with Middle Eastern countries to assess the possibility of mitigating Israel's response to its missile attack earlier this month.

Should these efforts prove ineffective, Tehran seeks assistance in safeguarding itself against potential Israeli strikes, sources familiar with the situation told CNN, per Caliber.Az.

This apprehension is largely driven by uncertainty regarding the U.S.'s ability to persuade Israel against targeting Iranian nuclear sites and oil facilities. Additionally, Iran's most crucial regional proxy militia, Hezbollah, has faced significant degradation due to Israeli military actions in recent weeks, further fueling concerns.

The U.S. has been in consultations with Israel about its planned response to Iran's missile attack on October 1. U.S. officials have emphasized their desire for Israel to avoid strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities or oil fields. In a recent conversation, President Joe Biden advised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that any retaliation should be “proportional.”

Gulf allies of the U.S., including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar, have also conveyed their worries regarding a possible Israeli assault on Iranian oil facilities, citing potential negative economic and environmental consequences for the entire region, according to an Arab diplomat.

The Biden administration is increasingly alarmed that the ongoing cycle of retaliatory attacks between Iran and Israel, which intensified following an Israeli strike on what Iran claimed was its consulate in Damascus earlier this year, could escalate into a larger regional conflict involving U.S. interests.

A significant concern is the perceived decline in U.S. influence over Israel in the past year. Similar to its operations in Gaza, Israel has largely overlooked U.S. calls for restraint in Lebanon, where its extensive bombing campaign and ground operations have resulted in over 1,400 casualties since late last month.

Israel has also conducted major strikes without prior consultation with the U.S., including a substantial attack that destroyed thousands of communication devices used by Hezbollah operatives and the assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. These actions have disrupted a delicate ceasefire proposal recently put forward by the U.S. and France.

As of October 11, Israel's security cabinet has not reached a consensus on its next steps. While the gap between U.S. and Israeli positions appears to be narrowing, there are concerns that this may not last, according to a U.S. official.

A senior administration official expressed scepticism about the transparency of Israel’s discussions within its cabinet, stating, “We can’t actually know whether they voted or not.” The official cautioned against placing too much confidence in the internal dynamics of the Israeli government.

Reports indicate that Israel has not provided assurances against targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, despite long-standing plans for potential strikes on Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Notably, Israel simulated an attack on these facilities in a military exercise just two years ago and has been linked to assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists and cyberattacks, including the notorious Stuxnet virus that targeted Iran’s Natanz facility.

Iran is particularly keen on securing support from Saudi Arabia to help prevent an Israeli attack and leverage its influence with Washington for a resolution to the crisis. Diplomatic officials from both nations have met three times in less than a month, with Iranian official Abbas Araghchi visiting Saudi Arabia to discuss regional developments and efforts to counter “the crimes of the Zionist regime in Lebanon and Gaza,” as reported in local media.

The international community is closely monitoring Israel’s next moves as it deliberates its response. However, Israel will observe a standstill until October 12 evening in observance of Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement and the holiest day in Judaism. During this time, public life will come to a halt: shops, restaurants, and public transport will be closed, and Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv will also be shut down.

By Tamilla Hasanova