Iran’s nuclear program and the collapse of diplomacy

Iran’s nuclear program has officially broken free from the 2015 deal that once tried to rein it in. As an in-depth analysis by The Insider explains, the expiration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in October 2025 marks a new, more dangerous chapter. Tehran has rejected outside constraints, Western sanctions have tightened again, and military tensions have escalated—putting the region on edge.

The JCPOA was supposed to be a diplomatic breakthrough. Signed under President Obama, it limited Iran’s uranium enrichment and allowed rigorous inspections in exchange for lifting sanctions. But from the start, Tehran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remained skeptical. The deal was seen more as a tactical pause than a real compromise—a suspicion that recent events seem to confirm.

Fast forward to 2018: President Trump withdrew the US from the deal, reimposing harsh sanctions that crippled Iran’s economy. The piece by The Insider highlights how these sanctions, targeting Iran’s oil exports and financial sector, devastated the country. European companies like BASF and Renault pulled out, despite Europe’s reluctance to abandon the deal. Iran’s economy tumbled, inflation soared, and the rial hit historic lows.

Then, this past June, the situation worsened. Israeli and US forces struck Iran’s nuclear sites in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, reportedly setting back Tehran’s nuclear program by at least two years. The use of massive bunker-busting bombs caused serious damage. These attacks came just as European powers reinstated sanctions through the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism, accusing Iran of violating its commitments by enriching uranium beyond limits and blocking inspectors.

Despite these pressures, Iran refuses to budge. The analysis makes it clear that Tehran is no longer interested in negotiations, with Khamenei branding talks with Washington as “irreconcilable.” Iran’s parliament is even pushing to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The expiration of the JCPOA removes any remaining legal barriers, allowing Iran to expand its nuclear activities openly.

But Iran isn’t just facing external pressure—it’s struggling internally too. The analysis points out a dire economic outlook for 2025, with near-zero GDP growth, inflation hitting up to 43%, and a currency in freefall. Infrastructure is crumbling: a looming electricity shortage and severe drought-induced water shortages threaten daily life. All of this while Iran tries to rebuild its military after a costly 12-day war with Israel earlier this year that destroyed much of its missile arsenal and air defenses.

On the military front, Iran’s options are limited. Its domestic defense industry suffers from equipment shortages, especially for solid rocket fuel production, making it dependent on China—Tehran’s main remaining ally. There are reports of China and Russia supplying fighter jets and missiles, but these seem insufficient to fully restore Iran’s lost capabilities.

In the region, Iran’s proxy force Hezbollah remains weakened, despite Tehran’s ongoing financial and political support. Israel and the US continue to watch closely, prepared to act militarily if Iran pushes too far. According to the article, this readiness for a repeat strike could be the West’s way of signaling Iran that the missile option remains on the table if diplomacy fails.

What emerges from this is a grim picture: Iran is defiant, economically pressured, militarily weakened, but unwilling to compromise. The old playbook of sanctions and negotiations has reached its limits. For the West—and especially for Israel and the Trump administration—there is growing impatience. If Tehran refuses to negotiate, military action might be seen as the only way to slow or stop its nuclear ambitions.

Yet, a full-scale strike risks escalating into wider conflict. China and Russia remain Iran’s political backers, and while their military support is limited, it complicates any direct confrontation. The piece argues that only a credible threat to the regime’s survival—one that convinces Khamenei that China and Russia can’t protect him—might bring Iran back to the negotiating table.

For now, the status quo looks like stalemate, with Iran expanding its nuclear program in defiance, the West doubling down on sanctions and military pressure, and the risk of another conflict simmering dangerously close. The analysis underscores that Iran’s nuclear deadlock is not just a diplomatic failure—it’s a geopolitical tinderbox with uncertain and potentially explosive consequences.

By Sabina Mammadli