“Iran to be alone if unleashes military conflict with Azerbaijan” Israeli military expert’s interview with Caliber.Az

Taking into account the current military-political situation in the Middle East, there is such a conclusion that a new military conflict is inevitable. There is such a conclusion because Israel has repeatedly declared its readiness to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if Tehran reaches the critical phase of uranium enrichment, that is, is ready for creating an atomic bomb.

Iran itself is very aggressive not only towards Israel, but also towards Azerbaijan. The frequent threats of the IRGC generals and the Iranian Foreign Ministry against Azerbaijan cause such a feeling that Tehran is really preparing for an escalation of the military conflict with Azerbaijan. However, Baku is supported not only by a powerful modern army today, but also by its strong ally – Türkiye, as well as Israel, which is an advanced strategic partner in the military sphere, and other countries united by the Organisation of Turkic States. Can Iran boast of such support? Not at all.

Of course, it is not that simple. Recently there have been serious political differences between Washington and Tel Aviv. There is political turbulence in Israel (which is very friendly to Azerbaijan) and it is clear that both the first and the second are very much to Tehran's advantage.

In an interview with Caliber.Az Retired captain of Israel Defence Forces, Israeli writer, journalist, military expert and historian Gregory Tamar unveiled his forecast of the likelihood of a war with Iran, the impact of foreign political tension on the situation in the region.

- A number of media outlets report that Israel is about to strike at Iranian nuclear facilities, while analysts and experts are trying to predict the scale of possible military actions. So, when and where will Israel strike?

- I can say that I have heard this “about to strike” many times over the past few years, so I would not rush with my assessments.

When this problem worried only Israel, it was one problem, but when the likelihood of its military conflict with Iran began to arise the interest of other countries and regions, became an active part of the world agenda, the involvement of the media in covering the situation and disseminating various applications on this topic has gained a lot of momentum. This or that idea, for example, the hype about "rapid and inevitable Israeli strike against Iran", is literally pumped up by the mass media.

However, Israel and Iran had more tense relations earlier. Let's not forget that there were open hostilities between Iran and Israel when there were clashes between the IRGC and the Israeli army during the Second Lebanon War in 2006. At least when Israel undertook a large-scale landing operation into Iran during the last three days of the Lebanese war, Iranians, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members, were among the captured officers. One of the Israeli paratroopers, who personally participated in that operation, told me about this. So we have been at war with Iran for a long time, it periodically tries to penetrate our airspace, and if Israel strikes at the Iranian rear, then the Iranians also try to make similar strikes. The only difference is that they do it less effectively than we do.

In general, there is still confrontation. However, it is difficult to talk about all hostilities, because, as you know, Israel never takes responsibility for all the committed acts. This is the policy of our country. However, the expressions “is about to strike” and “it will happen tomorrow” are irrelevant, you and me have zero reliable information about the true intentions of the Israeli and the US leading politicians. I would note that the media outlets are unaware.

- Do not you think that the current geopolitical situation in Eurasia, the South Caucasus, the Middle East is much more tense than it was before, and the contradictions are turning into conflicts. Then the domino effect begins.

- I think that now we are witnessing circumstances that have nothing to do with the situation between Iran and Israel. When the war between Ukraine and Russia broke out for a little over a year, the geopolitical stakes became higher and the rules of the game changed. This is on the one hand. On the other hand, there is a difficult political situation in Israel itself. A military conflict can become the saving element for the leading political circles of our country that would help overcome this internal political crisis. Although I am an active opponent of the policy of Netanyahu’s team, nevertheless I do not rule out that such an agenda may exist with one big condition for this action, this military operation, to be aimed at strengthening Israel’s security, rather than to be the product of an exclusively political situation, political game.

In this sense, there are many sensitive nuances as Israel's security issues, due to its geopolitical location, hold a priority place in the country's foreign policy. This is the position where there can be no weakness or omissions, which should not depend on political insinuations. Therefore, the US was furious when our defence minister was fired. If earlier the US president had never interfered in Israel’s internal agenda, then this time it happened. That is, the US felt that the Israeli prime minister was losing control of the situation. Then the US made it clear that on the eve of possible dramatic events, this decision is unacceptable, because the Israeli defence minister is constantly in touch with the US military and intelligence services, this is the bridge envisaging constant monitoring of security and existing threats between our countries.

- Can we say today, amid the political crisis between the US and Israel, that the US-Israeli military coalition is also under threat?

- In response, I can only mention a family model, when big conflicts between close people often occur. If we assume that a robber or a drunken neighbour attacks their house, there is no doubt that forgetting everything, they will protect the safety of their family standing shoulder to shoulder.

- Iran is openly threatening Baku. The IRGC is accusing Azerbaijan of pandering to some "Zionist forces." Can a war between Iran and Azerbaijan occur?

- I can say that it is possible to behave differently with friends and help your friends in different ways. You can yell “if you touch him, I'll beat your face in"” or you can quietly, without saying anything, help in a critical situation for no one to know without attracting attention. When relations between Azerbaijan and Israel are compared to an iceberg, where a smaller part is on the surface, while two-thirds are hidden from view, then I think that this is the right example of true allied relations. We are all here, in the Middle East, emotional, nervous, and temperamental. This is our essence, we take everything to heart. That is why such a policy is very correct and effective here. It is much more useful. There is no need for loud political profanations.

I can confidently say that Israel does not stand aside when damage is done to its allies. When incumbent President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi came to power in Egypt, Prime Minister Netanyahu explained to the Americans that these were the “right people”, even if they did not come to power in a democratic way, as opposed to the Islamists, that were before. For example, Hitler also also started as a democrat. However, returning to the topic of conversation, I would like to note that during that period the US listened to Israel, and our country still has very good relations with Egypt. Sometimes a single wise step can lead to far-reaching long-term consequences.

As for Iran’s threats, I would like to stress that your country has made a big revolution in terms of modernising and reforming its armed forces, Azerbaijan now has a powerful, combat-ready army. So I do not think that any aggressor will get much pleasure if dares to make any claims to your sovereignty. I think that Azerbaijan will immediately react. The issue is that Azerbaijan today is a country that is very understandable to the West with a clear foreign policy, so the US and Europe are unlikely to let this situation take its course, given that your adversary is a reactionary and unpredictable country, which is hostile towards the West. If Iran unleashes such a military conflict, it will be alone or with such odious partner as Russia. China will not interfere in this situation, because, as you know, the Chinese are wise people and would prefer to see the end. Taking into account the internal tension in Iran, I think that there will be only "Great Persian" rhetoric. Taking into account that approximately 40 per cent of the Iranian population are also ethnic Azerbaijanis, who are unlikely to be pleased that a war will break out between their relatives and the regime that discriminates Azerbaijanis in Iran for a long time. So I think Iran is unlikely take the risk and make such a "gift" to the entire civilised world, because I think that such an ill-conceived challenge would be extremely unpredictable and unfavourable for the regime in Tehran.