Is Belarus preparing to enter the war against Ukraine?

Ukraine is strengthening its defences along its northern border amid concerns that Belarus could become further involved in Russia’s war against Ukraine, The Guardian reports.

According to the newspaper, Ukrainian forces are reinforcing fortification structures and closely monitoring troop movements and drone activity near the border.

Citing Ukrainian military data, The Guardian reports that since the beginning of 2026, there has been around a 20% increase in Russian reconnaissance drone activity operating from Belarusian territory.

The report also notes the emergence of new Russian drone bases near the Belarusian border and the expansion of infrastructure that could potentially support Russian military operations.

Despite these developments, Ukrainian and European analysts say there are currently no signs of a strike force being assembled in Belarus for a new offensive against Ukraine. However, they caution that there is a risk of a gradual deeper involvement of Minsk in the conflict.

The Guardian adds that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba suspect Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may be preparing for a more active role in the war.

In response, Ukraine has reportedly reinforced its northern direction with anti-tank obstacles, barbed wire, and additional surveillance systems.

The report concludes that the main concern for Kyiv is not an immediate Belarusian ground offensive, but rather the country’s potential transformation into a stable launch platform for Russian operations against Ukraine.

By Vugar Khalilov