ISW: Iran preparing for possible resumption of conflict

Iran has signalled it will not enter negotiations without security guarantees and credible deterrence against future military action, including control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War.

The assessment said Iranian authorities view potential renewed conflict with the United States and Israel alongside internal security preparations, warning that tighter Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz could have significant implications for global maritime trade, particularly for Gulf economies.

It added that Western media reports have alleged involvement by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in undeclared strikes during the recent conflict, though these claims have not been independently confirmed.

The report also said European states have shown conditional willingness to support efforts to secure commercial shipping in the region, with some officials stressing that participation would depend on “conditions” and a clearer understanding of US operational requirements.

Separately, the assessment argued that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is consolidating influence over the country’s internal power structure under IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his network, amid heightened regional tensions.