ISW: Is Russia deploying "African Corps" to Syria? map

Russia may redeploy units from its "African Corps" to Syria in an effort to bolster Bashar al-Assad’s regime and prevent its collapse, which would undermine the Kremlin’s strategic objectives in Africa and key sea routes in the Mediterranean and Red Seas.

This analysis comes from a report by the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), per Caliber.Az.

The ISW notes that while the "African Corps" could provide advisory and support roles to Syrian government forces, its capacity to send sufficient troops to decisively alter the military balance in Syria appears limited.

According to the report, it remains unclear how far Syrian rebels can advance or whether they can hold captured territories. A rebel overthrow of Assad would represent a severe blow to Russia’s strategic ambitions, including its ability to project power in the Mediterranean and Red Seas. Such a scenario could also compromise NATO’s southern flank in the region and challenge Moscow’s influence in Africa.

If Assad’s regime collapses, Russia’s logistical operations in Africa would be significantly disrupted. The report highlights that such a development could tarnish Russia’s image as a reliable partner and defender, which might jeopardise its partnerships with African nations and weaken its economic, military, and political leverage across the continent.

Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (GUR) reported on December 3 that the Kremlin plans to redeploy units, possibly including "African Corps" personnel, to Syria following a surprise offensive by Syrian rebels in late November. However, details about the scale of these reinforcements or their origins remain unspecified.

Russia operates two key military installations in Syria’s Latakia province that could serve as reinforcement hubs: the Khmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base.

Deployment of African Corps in Syria

Rebel forces have made notable advances, capturing Aleppo — Syria's second-largest city — on December 1 and pushing south towards Hama by December 3. Hama is less than 30 miles from Homs, Syria’s third-largest city and a critical gateway to the Mediterranean coast, lying just 90 miles north of Damascus.

The ISW assesses that Russia faces significant logistical hurdles in deploying sufficient forces from the "African Corps" to Syria and maintaining operations in Afrin. The corps is already overstretched due to personnel shortages and commitments elsewhere. For instance, around 2,000 Russian troops in Mali are engaged in defending the capital, Bamako, while conducting counterinsurgency missions across the country’s central and northern regions.

Further complicating matters, Russia’s African operations remain fragmented. Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov recently visited Burkina Faso and Niger, where he pledged to expand local Russian military contingents of 100-300 troops. Meanwhile, in the Central African Republic (CAR), 4,000 Wagner Group veterans have yet to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence and remain outside the formal structure of the African Corps.

While Russia appears intent on shoring up Assad’s regime, its ability to redeploy sufficient forces from Africa to Syria is constrained by logistical and personnel challenges. A collapse of Assad’s government would have far-reaching implications for Moscow’s influence in the Mediterranean and Africa, threatening its strategic ambitions and partnerships across these regions.

By Tamilla Hasanova