ISW: Kremlin may be planning protests to oust Moldovan president

The Kremlin may be preparing to orchestrate violent protests in Moldova following the country’s upcoming parliamentary elections in an attempt to remove pro-Western President Maia Sandu from power, according to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“The Kremlin is setting conditions to generate possibly violent protests to remove Moldovan President Maia Sandu from power following the September 28 Moldovan parliamentary elections,” ISW stated in a report released on September 25, Caliber.Az reports.

ISW analysts warned that Russia is likely working through Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians and other actors to spark unrest, regardless of the outcome of the vote.

“Russia has been using Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians and other actors to set conditions to generate post-election protests regardless of the election’s outcome,” the report said. It also noted that Russian intelligence officers have reportedly trained Moldovan individuals in staging provocations and escalating demonstrations into violence.

The warning comes amid growing uncertainty around Moldova’s parliamentary elections. Recent polling suggests that the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which currently holds a majority and supports closer ties with the West, may lose its dominant position. However, no clear majority appears likely for any party or coalition, and much of the outcome could depend on undecided voters and the diaspora—whose preferences are not captured by domestic polling.

“Polls indicate that much will hinge on the significant number of still undecided voters and the diaspora vote [whose opinions the polls do not track] such that the probable election results remain unclear at this time,” ISW said.

The think tank further cautioned that Moscow may be attempting to manufacture a “mirror-image” of Ukraine’s 2014 Euromaidan uprising, but this time with a pro-Russian outcome.

“The Russians may seek to generate a Kremlin-initiated mirror-image of the spontaneous pro-European 2014 Euromaidan protests in Ukraine that drove pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych from office,” the report added.

ISW emphasised that its assessment serves as a warning of a potentially “high-impact event of indeterminate probability.” The Kremlin may ultimately decide not to pursue this plan, or it may attempt it and fail.

“The Kremlin may not pursue this course of action or may try to pursue it and fail,” ISW concluded.

By Sabina Mammadli