ISW: Prigozhin to remain in post as long as Wagner on frontline

The Kremlin is probably preparing mechanisms to recognize the owner of the private military company Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, as a traitor in the future. However, this is not likely to happen any time soon.

Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of Russian positions to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut, Caliber.Az reports, citing a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW believes that in this way, Prigozhin is continuing his fight with the Russian Defence Ministry, but not with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Analysts noted that the Kremlin may have been aware of Prigozhin's potential contacts with the Ukrainian side, so they were not surprised by The Washington Post's publication.

The matter is that the Kremlin is likely preparing mechanisms to discredit Prigozhin as a traitor.

“Unnamed Kremlin sources revealed that the Russian Presidential Administration is preparing an information operation to publicly discredit Prigozhin but noted that the Kremlin is unlikely to threaten Prigozhin while Wagner forces are on the frontlines.[12] Prigozhin commands the Wagner forces in Donbas, and his removal would disrupt the Russian lines in Bakhmut – a risk that Putin is unlikely to take,” the report reads.

According to ISW, the Kremlin is also unable easily to publicly remove and replace Prigozhin as the de facto head of Wagner because Wagner is an independent company and Prigozhin holds no official position in the Russian government.

“Removing Prigozhin from his control of Wagner would ironically require asserting direct Kremlin control of the mercenary group from which Putin has been at pains to maintain formal distance,” the ISW analysts added.

Key Takeaways

• Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of Russian positions to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut.
• Russian military bloggers uniformly attacked a proposal for “military censorship,” further indicating that the community is highly motivated to defend its privileged position within the Russian information space.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that it intercepted a Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile for the first time on May 15.
• The Kremlin has reportedly banned high-ranking officials from resigning during the war in Ukraine, likely in an attempt to maintain stability within domestic security organs, government bodies, and the Russian military command.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on May 14 and 15 confirming the provision of more Western military aid.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Masyutivka, Kharkiv Oblast and established a bridgehead on the west bank of the Oskil River, but ISW has observed no visual confirmation of these claims.
• Russian forces continued to launch ground assaults in and around Bakhmut and conducted limited offensive operations near Donetsk City.
• Ukrainian intelligence reported that approximately 152,000 Russian military personnel in southern Ukraine continue defensive efforts ahead of a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to take advantage of migrant labour and incentivize foreigners into contract military service.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to set conditions to forcibly relocate Ukrainians from occupied territories to Russia.