ISW: Russian forces setting conditions to cause provocation at Ukrainian nuclear plant

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on August 18 for the first time since July 6.

Russian and Ukrainian sources did not claim any new territorial gains on August 18. However, Russian forces still conducted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults across the eastern axis on August 18, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, reports.

Russian sources reported explosions across Crimea—possibly caused by Russian air defences, Ukrainian reconnaissance, or a Ukrainian attack—on the night of August 18.

Russian sources also claimed that Russian air defences shot down a drone near the Kerch Bridge between Crimea and Russia on the night of August 18 as social media footage showed active air defences in the area.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be setting information conditions to blame Ukrainian forces for future false flag operations at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP).

Key Takeaways:

- Russian sources reported a series of unidentified and unconfirmed explosions across Crimea on the night of August 18.

- The Russian Ministry of Defense may be setting information conditions to blame Ukraine for a false flag attack at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

- Russian forces conducted ground assaults south of Siversk and northeast and south of Bakhmut.

- Russian forces continued conducting offensive operations north, west, and southwest of Donetsk City.

- Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful ground assault on the Zaporizhia axis.

- Ukrainian officials confirmed additional strikes on a Russian military base and warehouse in Kherson Oblast.

- The Kremlin is likely to leverage established Cossack organizations to support Russian force generation efforts.

- Russian occupation officials continued preparations for the long-term integration of occupied territories of Ukraine into Russia.