Kazakhstan may stop transit of Russian oil to China Is US pressure behind it?

Russian oil shipments to China through Kazakhstan are at risk due to US sanctions imposed on the energy company Rosneft, per RTVI.

The issue concerns the Atasu–Alashankou pipeline, which transports around 10 million tonnes of crude annually from Western Siberia. Kazakhstan’s operator, KazTransOil, receives $15 per tonne under a 2023 transit contract.

The future of these shipments now depends on a decision by the US Treasury. If Washington issues a general license exempting the pipeline from sanctions, transit may continue. Without such an exemption, Kazakhstan will either have to halt the flow of Russian oil or risk exposure to secondary sanctions.

During talks with US and EU officials, Kazakh authorities stressed their commitment to complying with international obligations. Should a license be granted, financial settlements between Rosneft and Kazakhstan — worth about $150 million — would need to be conducted in national currencies.

China’s main purchases of Russian oil arrive by sea, reaching up to 1.5 million barrels per day. Following the sanctions, state giants Sinopec and PetroChina suspended these imports, and China’s seaborne intake fell by 36% in November to 926,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler estimates. An additional 300,000–400,000 barrels per day of supply remain at risk.

Analysts believe China could partially restore purchases through intermediaries. If crude is supplied by third-party traders not directly linked to Rosneft or Lukoil, refineries may continue receiving discounted Russian barrels while reducing the visibility of any sanction-related transactions.

By Khagan Isayev