Media: Conflict in Ukraine enters its final phase

Nearly three years after Vladimir Putin ordered Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the war seems to be entering what could be its final phase, with the prospect of a peace deal appearing more likely than ever.

Ukraine is struggling: it has steadily lost ground since the summer, its military is facing a growing shortage of soldiers, and Russia has gained six times more territory this year than it did in all of 2023, Caliber.Az reports per foreign media.

After months of insisting it would not cede any land to Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently acknowledged that Ukraine’s army currently lacks the strength to retake all occupied territory and floated the possibility of postponing that goal in exchange for NATO membership. A recent Gallup poll found that 52 per cent of Ukrainians now support a quick, negotiated end to the war, up from just 27 per cent last year.

While Ukrainians are exhausted from the ongoing conflict, Russia also faces significant challenges. Ukraine and its allies estimate that Russian military casualties—both dead and wounded—could be as high as 700,000, and geolocated data has indicated the destruction of over 14,000 pieces of Russian military equipment. With casualty rates that Britain’s Ministry of Defense estimated at 1,500 a day during the first half of November, such losses in both personnel and equipment cannot be sustained for long.

Here are four potential scenarios for Ukraine’s future security: Zelensky has expressed a desire for NATO membership, but this goal will likely remain unfulfilled. NATO requires unanimous agreement to admit a new member, and the closest the alliance came to agreeing on Ukraine’s membership was in 2008, when it stated that Ukraine would eventually join, though no specific timeline was given. 

Alternatively, a coalition of willing nations could offer to protect Ukraine. However, this presents a problem: Ukraine wants the United States to be part of the group of guarantors. Ukraine sees NATO as primarily a US guarantee of protection and will not consider any coalition reliable unless it is backed by American troops and weaponry. Given that Trump, who seeks to end the war without making any commitment to protect Ukraine and aims to reduce America’s security presence in Europe, is unlikely to agree to such an arrangement. 

Furthermore, due to geographic realities, Ukraine’s security will always be of greater importance to Europe than to the United States. As a result, it is wise to anticipate a diminished American military presence in Europe, which will require European countries to take on a larger share of the responsibility for their own defense, potentially even assuming the primary responsibility for protecting Ukraine. What would an endgame where Europe takes the lead look like? Several European countries have discussed the possibility of stationing troops in postwar Ukraine. 

Another possible model—let’s call it armed neutrality—would be the one Ukraine would least prefer. This scenario would require Russia to promise not to attack Ukraine, while Ukraine would have to renounce both NATO membership and the stationing of foreign troops and weapons on its soil. 

Ukraine must reject any restrictions on the size of its army, as Russia insisted on during failed negotiations in 2022, or on the types of conventional weapons it can acquire or build. European nations, which are already training Ukrainian forces and investing in its defense sector, can do more to support Ukraine in both these areas. 

By Naila Huseynova