Media: Iran begins evacuating military personnel from Syria amid rebel offensive

Iran has started evacuating its military personnel and top commanders from Syria, signalling a shift in the country’s involvement in the Syrian conflict as President Bashar al-Assad faces a resurgent rebel offensive.

According to regional and Iranian officials, evacuations began on December 6 and involved members of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, a branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) tasked with external operations. Among those evacuated were high-ranking commanders, Guards personnel, Iranian diplomatic staff, their families, and civilians, with many being transferred to neighbouring Iraq and Lebanon, Caliber.Az reports, citing The New York Times.

The move represents a significant development for both the Syrian government and Iran, marking a change in the situation that has unfolded over Syria’s 13-year civil war. For years, Iran has been one of the strongest backers of President Assad’s government, using Syria as a key route for supplying weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon and sending advisors and commanders to assist in the fight against opposition forces. However, the new evacuations suggest that Iran is now reassessing its role as the situation deteriorates.

“Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria’s army itself does not want to fight,” Mehdi Rahmati, an Iranian analyst advising officials on regional strategy, explained in a telephone interview. He added, “The bottom line is that Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.”

The evacuation comes amid a sudden and aggressive rebel offensive that has altered the dynamics of the civil war. Within a matter of days, a coalition of rebel groups, led by the Islamist faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has captured major cities such as Aleppo and Hama, while advancing toward Damascus. The loss of key territories, including Homs and Deir al-Zour, has prompted Iran to withdraw its personnel from critical positions. In particular, two top generals of Iran’s Quds Forces, stationed to advise the Syrian military, fled to Iraq as rebel groups made significant territorial gains.

The offensive marks a turning point for both Iran and Syria, as the Syrian government, once on the brink of collapse in the early years of the civil war, is once again facing severe pressure. Ahmad Naderi, an Iranian member of parliament, commented on the situation: “Syria is at the verge of collapse and we are watching calmly.” He further stressed that if Damascus fell, Iran would lose its influence in Iraq and Lebanon, adding, “I don’t understand the reason for this inaction but whatever it is, it’s not good for our country.”

The conflict comes at a time when Iran’s ability to support Assad’s regime is further hindered by its ongoing tensions with Israel. Additionally, Russia’s involvement in Ukraine has drained its military resources, while Hezbollah, which has been crucial in supporting the Assad government, is stretched thin due to its own conflict with Israel.

The situation is complicated by the weakening of Iran’s influence in the region, especially in its capacity to supply both the Syrian regime and Hezbollah with vital military support. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, had visited Damascus earlier in the week, where he reassured Assad of Tehran’s continued support. However, speaking in Baghdad on December 6, Araghchi adopted a more cautious tone, saying, “We are not fortune tellers. Whatever is God’s will shall happen, but the resistance will fulfill its duty.”

By Vugar Khalilov