Netanyahu's future, Armenia's arms race and common foes of Azerbaijan and Israel Caliber.Az talks to Peter Lukimson

Caliber.Az's interview with prominent Israeli writer, publicist and military expert Peter Lukimson touched on many issues, including Netanyahu's forseeable resignation, Armenia's rearmament and what unites Azerbaijan and Israel.

- Mr. Lukimson, what do you think about what's going on in Gaza? American secret services started predicting that Netanyahu was going to resign. How realistic are such forecasts?

- The operation is certainly bearing fruit. Our army is in front of Rafah, the southernmost town in the Gaza Strip, where Hamas leaders are believed to be hiding, along with hostages taken in Israeli population centres. Having deliberately set impossible conditions for another ceasefire and hostage swap deal for its terrorists, i.e. simply scuppered the deal, it is clear that if Israel refuses to storm Rafah, the movement will declare victory. And this will indeed be its victory, because in this case, although 3/4 of its fighting units have been destroyed and captured, it will ensure its survival and continue to claim control of the Strip. This is what the US, France, Canada and others are now urging Israel to do. But it is also clear that this option is unacceptable to Israel, and it will be a pity if it succumbs to this pressure and doesn't put an end to the matter, as Azerbaijan has done by dotting all the i's and crossing all the t's, which many of our right-wing political analysts have rightly held up as an example to our government.

As for Netanyahu's resignation, it is certainly a foregone conclusion after the events of October 7, but the question is when exactly it will happen: whether he will be able to bring the war with Hamas to an end, or whether he will be "gone" before then. I know Benjamin Netanyahu personally, I have interviewed him on many occasions, and I have attended meetings with him on the condition that he not be quoted directly, so I think I know our Prime Minister well. It is now crucial for him to step down and go down in history as the winner of the war against Hamas and Hezbollah. So he has made it clear that with or without the US, Israel will continue the war until all Hamas leaders are eliminated and captured and Rafah is taken. He is now at loggerheads with Washington and is severely hampering President Biden's campaign. It is therefore clear that the White House will use all its influence, all its leverage, to oust Netanyahu before he can carry out his plans. The outbreak of war in northern Israel with Hezbollah is only a matter of time, as all diplomatic efforts have been exhausted and Israel cannot tolerate the fact that the north of the country is under fire and the residents of dozens of settlements have been turned into refugees and are living in hotels.

- France is stepping up arms deliveries to Yerevan. It makes no secret of its intention to provoke a major escalation in the South Caucasus. Why does Paris have to do that, in your opinion?

- One should understand that France's hypocritical position towards Azerbaijan and Israel is very pragmatic. The Armenian position is supported by a very strong Armenian lobby, and a huge Arab community backs the Arab position, which today if I am not mistaken, makes up more than 20 per cent of the population of the country. Both represent a huge electoral force that French politicians, especially those of the left-liberal camp, cannot afford to ignore. So, as they say, it's nothing personal.

Of course, both the French president and his staff categorically deny all accusations of anti-Semitism. They say they are not against Jews, but against Israel, which is not the same thing (although of course anti-Semitic sentiment is very strong in France these days, and politicians are often anti-Semites themselves). When it comes to Azerbaijan, they deliberately confuse the issues and reject accusations of Islamophobia: what kind of Islamophobes are we if we are on the side of the Arabs? We are simply for the "defence of the rights of the Armenian people" against the "aggression of Azerbaijan". These words conceal a biased, openly anti-Azerbaijani position and an equally open desire to help Armenia gain victory in a military clash with Azerbaijan.

- What do you think of the new Armenian weapons? Is Yerevan, with the help of France, India and other countries, capable of re-equipping and training the army for a new war?

- I don't think a conflict will start soon, at least not before the end of this year. Armenia needs time to rearm and prepare for a new war, especially given Azerbaijan's clear advantage in terms of population and resources. In any case, in my opinion, it will be a very bloody but completely futile massacre, because Armenia's defeat is a foregone conclusion even with Western weapons. Especially since Azerbaijan has no worse, if not better, weapons, including (but not only) Israeli weapons.

The best thing Armenia can do is to conclude a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, without which, taking into account geography and other factors, its economic development is simply impossible. The other question is whether there will be leaders in Yerevan who understand this and, if so, whether the Armenian people are going to accept where they stand. The videos I have seen unfortunately show that the Armenians are still living with hatred towards their neighbours and are not ready for constructive dialogue.

- Europe does not accept the fact that Azerbaijan liberated its own lands and restored its territorial integrity, just as several Western countries do not accept Israel's position. No one remembers how many peaceful Azerbaijanis died as a result of Armenian aggression in the First Karabakh War, how many were expelled from their lands, and died as a result of the genocide in Karabakh. The memory of Europeans is short, many for some reason only empathise with Armenian myths. Who do you think pays for anti-Azerbaijani propaganda in the West?

- I remember that in 1990 I published a large article "Karabakh and Palestine: experience of drawing parallels" in the pages of the then newspaper "Elm". One of its chapters was devoted to the fact that the similarity between the Karabakh and Palestinian conflicts lies, among other things, in the fact that Israel and Azerbaijan are constantly losing the information war. Unfortunately, everything that was said in that article is still relevant today. But ironically, over time we have developed common foes. And you're right about the fact that they use the same methods concerning both countries and peoples: they openly distort and pervert or simply ignore both historical and seemingly recent facts that happened before everyone's eyes, deliberately demonise Israel and Azerbaijan, and so on.

There is another strange coincidence in our history: forces of seemingly different character and interests often unite against us. We could spend a long time debating why this is the case, and that is a subject for another article, and not a small one at that, rather than an interview. But what we should certainly think about is not who is the client and founder of this lobby, but how to make this lobby ineffective. The clients can and should be dealt with afterwards.