Netherlands intelligence agency sees risk of future Russia–NATO clash

The Netherlands’ Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) has stated that Russia could restore sufficient military capability to engage in a regional conflict with NATO within one year after the end of hostilities in Ukraine, according to its 2025 annual report.

The Dutch intelligence service assesses that Russia is already taking concrete steps to prepare for a possible confrontation with the North Atlantic Alliance.

These actions, the report suggests, may be aimed at creating political divisions through “limited territorial gains.”

As long as the war in Ukraine continues, a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO remains highly unlikely, MIVD notes.

However, it warns that international arms control mechanisms and communication channels—previously effective in reducing tensions—are weakening.

Discussions in Europe about a potential Russia–NATO conflict intensified in mid-2025.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has suggested that hostilities could begin within five years.

Russian officials, however, have repeatedly rejected such claims.

President Vladimir Putin has said Russia poses no threat to European countries and has no intention of attacking anyone.

By Bakhtiyar Abbasov