Nuclear question returns to Europe as leaders eye life beyond US protection

European governments are intensifying discussions on strengthening their own nuclear deterrence amid growing doubts about the long-term reliability of US security guarantees against a nuclear-armed Russia, senior European officials told US media.

Officials say the debate has gained urgency in recent weeks as US President Donald Trump has adopted a more confrontational tone toward Europe, including sharp criticism at the World Economic Forum in Davos and renewed demands that the US acquire Greenland. Against this backdrop, European leaders are examining whether they should rely more heavily on the nuclear capabilities of France and the United Kingdom, or, in more extreme scenarios, develop their own atomic options.

France, the European Union’s only nuclear power, is central to the discussions. President Emmanuel Macron is expected to outline France’s nuclear policy in a major speech in the coming weeks, potentially clarifying how Paris might contribute more directly to European security. Senior officials describe internal talks among European capitals as increasingly serious, with one characterising them as “intense and productive”.

At issue is the credibility of the US nuclear umbrella, which has underpinned European security and limited nuclear proliferation for decades. Arms control experts warn that confidence in extended deterrence depends on allies believing Washington would act if Europe were attacked. That confidence, they say, is now being tested.

European officials say options under consideration range from upgrading France’s nuclear forces and redeploying French nuclear-capable aircraft beyond national borders, to reinforcing conventional forces along NATO’s eastern flank. Another possibility being explored is ensuring that non-nuclear European states possess the technical capacity to develop nuclear weapons if necessary — a step that would not violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty unless it involved concrete actions such as enriching uranium.

The White House has pushed back against suggestions that US commitments are weakening. A spokesperson said President Trump “has done more for NATO than anyone” and argued that his pressure on allies to raise defence spending is forcing Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security. The spokesperson also reiterated that only the US has the capability to protect Greenland, framing the issue as aligned with NATO interests.

Despite these assurances, scepticism remains. France and Britain are the only NATO members besides the US with nuclear weapons, but their arsenals are far smaller. The US has roughly 3,700 nuclear warheads, compared with about 290 for France and around 225 for the UK. Former US officials argue that Paris and London lack the capacity to deter Russia independently and have long relied on the American nuclear umbrella.

Some European officials also question whether France could offer a stable long-term alternative, noting that future French governments could reverse any commitments made by Macron. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen, for example, has said France’s nuclear arsenal should be used solely for national defence.

The debate is spreading across Europe. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said Warsaw is in serious talks with France about nuclear protection, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has signalled openness to a French nuclear umbrella — a position previously rejected by Berlin. The Netherlands has said it is not ruling out such an arrangement, though it continues to view NATO as the cornerstone of its security.

Others stress that the issue should be resolved within the alliance. Finland’s foreign minister said Europe remains highly dependent on the US, arguing that a strong NATO also serves American interests. Analysts note that some nuclear discussions may be intended to pressure Washington rather than signal a genuine shift toward proliferation.

The talks are unfolding as arms control agreements between the US and Russia continue to erode, adding to concerns about strategic stability. France and Britain announced a nuclear cooperation framework last year, but details remain limited. Macron’s forthcoming speech is expected to provide the clearest indication yet of how far France is willing to go in reshaping Europe’s nuclear posture.

By Tamilla Hasanova