NYP: Backing Ukraine costs Europe twice less than conceding to Moscow

Helping Ukraine defeat Russia remains a far more economical path for Europe than conceding to the Kremlin’s demands.

According to a new study titled “Europe’s Choice” from Norway, sustaining Ukraine’s war effort over the next four years would require European governments to spend between $606 and $972 billion, whereas allowing Moscow to prevail could force Europe to invest nearly twice as much — between $1.4 and $1.8 trillion — to strengthen its eastern defences, New York Post (NYP) reposts.

“The recent 28-point peace plan proposed from the Trump administration illustrates the urgent need for Europe to take initiative and ownership of diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s illegal war,” the study read.

The researchers add that the Trump administration is “out of touch with the real issues at stake,” noting that their projections assume Ukraine receives little to no assistance from the United States.

If Europe fails to step up support, the report anticipates a slow but eventual Russian victory—an outcome that could cost the EU up to $1.8 trillion.

Such a scenario would likely trigger a massive refugee outflow from Ukraine into Europe, burdening governments with high financial and social costs.

It would also strengthen Moscow’s geopolitical leverage, potentially redirecting its ambitions toward the Arctic or Baltic regions and compelling NATO members to sharply increase defence spending.

However, if the EU succeeds in mobilising as much as $972 billion over four years to bolster Ukraine’s armed forces, the study suggests Kyiv could achieve a decisive win.

This level of support would help millions of displaced Ukrainians return home, stabilise the region, and create conditions conducive to foreign investment.

The proposed funding package includes the procurement of roughly 8 million drones, 95 brigades’ worth of equipment, up to 2,500 additional battle tanks, and other essential military hardware. The report also underscores that much of the required financing could come from the confiscation of frozen Russian assets.

By Jeyhun Aghazada