NYT: Russia expands military forces near Finnish border, raising security concerns

Russia has begun significantly expanding military infrastructure near the Finnish border, a move confirmed by NATO officials and visible in recent satellite imagery. The buildup is seen as part of Moscow’s long-term strategy for the post-Ukraine war era and signals renewed focus on NATO's northern flank, sources and alliance officials say to the New York Times. 

Satellite images reveal the construction of new facilities and the return of military assets to previously dormant bases. Among the most notable developments are rows of new tents and vehicle warehouses, renovations to hardened aircraft shelters, and revived activity at a helicopter base near Murmansk that had been unused for two decades, Caliber.Az reports citing the NYT. 

With Ukrainian drones striking targets deep inside Russia, Moscow has shifted some of its air assets further north, placing them closer to NATO territory. Dozens of Russian warplanes were recently seen at the Olenya air base, located fewer than 100 miles from the Finnish border. Meanwhile, over 100 new military tents have appeared at the Kamenka base, just 40 miles from Finland.

Additional construction has been reported at Alakurtti and Petrozavodsk, where buildings capable of housing dozens of military vehicles have been erected. Satellite imagery also shows new military activity about 80 miles from the Estonian border.

While the buildup is substantial, NATO officials emphasised that it does not resemble the rapid troop concentration seen prior to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. For now, Russian troop presence along the Finnish frontier remains limited. Finnish officials, however, warn that this could change dramatically once hostilities in Ukraine subside.

The Finns think they have five years or so before Russia can build up its forces to threatening levels. But they are confident it will happen and that the number of Russian troops facing them will triple.

Brigadier General Pekka Turunen, Director of Finnish Defence Intelligence, said troop levels facing Finland could eventually triple. 

“We’ll be talking about so much higher troop levels,” he noted, suggesting a long-term shift in Russia’s strategic posture.

Russia maintains that these deployments are defensive, aimed at countering NATO’s expansion — a long-standing grievance in Moscow. However, analysts believe the moves reflect broader ambitions.

“After the war, the ground force will probably end up larger than before 2022,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Looking at the planned restructuring of military districts, it seems clear that they’re going to prioritize areas facing NATO.”

A senior NATO official, speaking anonymously, warned that Moscow’s ambitions in the Arctic are another driving factor. 

“They are expanding their brigades into divisions, which means that the units near our borders will grow significantly — by thousands,” said Emil Kastehelmi of the Finnish Black Bird Group, which monitors military activity in the region.

“The increase of military force in our nearby areas will happen after the fighting in Ukraine quiets down,” said Janne Kuusela, the defence policy director at the Finnish Ministry of Defence.

The exact timeline of the buildup depends on developments in Ukraine. “That’s what we have to be prepared for,” he said.

By Sabina Mammadli