Peace in Caucasus: "Trump Route" to reshape region Article by Forbes

An article on peace in the South Caucasus and the geopolitical importance of the “Trump Route” has been published in the American magazine Forbes. At the heart of the agreement lies the strategic Zangezur Corridor — a trade artery set to revive the Silk Road while bypassing Russia and Iran. This corridor promises not only significant economic opportunities but also a fundamental shift in regional security. Caliber.Az presents key excerpts from the piece, spotlighting the historic peace deal brokered by the U.S. President that aims to end decades of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a Trump-brokered peace deal in the White House, ending decades of tensions and conflict - if it holds. The deal includes the creation of a highly profitable strategic trade corridor that passes through both countries, incentivising them to stay on course.

That route, now known as the Zangezur Corridor, will be developed by American companies and rebranded Trump Route For International Peace and Prosperity (Tripp). It will include rail lines, communication lines, and oil and gas pipelines.

Why is the route so important that age-old adversaries have potentially buried the hatchet in order to make it happen? The corridor would forge a pathway from the Stans in Central Asia down through the Caucasus to Türkiye and beyond to the world, effectively revitalising the old Silk Road. Which means it would bypass both Russia and Iran, countries which have hitherto colluded to keep Central Asia’s trade access westward bottled up except via their territory.

Armenians understand the geopolitical implications full well. It looks, at first glance, as if their historic adversaries are empowered and physically reconnected through this plan. So why has Armenia consented? Answer: because Armenians now distrust Moscow as a security guarantor.

By bringing in US participation, Armenia gets a new guarantor of its security. For President Trump, the additional benefits include new leverage for his upcoming Ukraine peace talks with Putin, added leverage against Iran.

In the first instance, Trump can offer to re-include Russia as a participant in the Zangezur, or not, depending on Putin’s intransigence. In the second case, to strengthen Azerbaijan’s position.

But the outlook for TRIPP and the peace deal is not all smooth sailing either. Most recently, a top Iranian minister openly threatened repercussions against it, saying “this corridor will not become a passage owned by Trump but rather a graveyard for Trump’s mercenaries”.

The Zangezur is essentially the equivalent of a Panama or Suez Canal, both of which needed Western military support for decades during and after completion.

By Aghakazim Guliyev