Poland real estate posts first annual decline in over decade

Housing prices in Poland fell year-on-year in both the primary and secondary markets for the first time in more than a decade in the fourth quarter of 2025, central bank data showed, marking a pause after some of the fastest price growth in the European Union.

Average transaction prices per square metre in seven major cities declined by 0.8% from a year earlier in the primary market for newly built homes and by 0.4% on the secondary market for resold properties, Caliber.Az reports via Polish media. 

It was the first annual drop in primary market prices since 2014 and the first for the secondary market since 2016.

The two segments had not recorded simultaneous year-on-year declines since the second quarter of 2013.

Poland had been among the EU’s leaders in housing price growth in 2023 and 2024, supported by robust economic expansion, a state-backed mortgage subsidy scheme and limited new supply.

Analysts at Bank Pekao said the slowdown was more pronounced in real terms. Adjusted for inflation, housing prices fell by 3% to 3.5% year-on-year in the second half of 2025, while affordability improved for a sixth consecutive quarter.

The amount of residential space that could be purchased with the average monthly salary rose by 11% to 12%, depending on the market, reaching its highest level since 2018, the bank said.

However, Pekao noted that access to housing also depends on the availability and cost of credit. Despite a slight improvement, borrowing conditions remain tighter than in 2018–2019 due to still-elevated interest rates. The bank expects affordability to improve further if rates decline and lending standards ease.

According to the NBP, the average transaction price of new apartments in Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Łódź, Poznań, Gdańsk and Gdynia stood at 14,251 zlotys ($3,375) per square metre in the fourth quarter.

Warsaw remained the most expensive market at 16,583 zlotys per square metre, while Łódź was the cheapest at 9,708 zlotys. Primary market prices fell the most in Łódź, down 2.9% year-on-year, while Gdynia recorded the strongest increase, up 11.9%.

On the secondary market, the average price across the seven cities was 13,479 zlotys per square metre. Prices reached 16,750 zlotys in Warsaw and 8,038 zlotys in Łódź. Secondary prices declined most sharply in Gdynia, falling 5.9% year-on-year, while Łódź posted the strongest rise, also 5.9%.

Despite the recent decline, Pekao’s analysts said Poland continues to face a structural undersupply of new housing. They forecast that prices could rebound and rise by around 5% year-on-year by the end of 2026.

By Aghakazim Guliyev