Political analyst: Armenia won’t be invited to the table when big powers decide blasts Yerevan’s zigzag strategy

Armenia’s current foreign policy moves are driven by populism and have little to do with the balanced diplomacy the authorities are trying to project, political analyst Arman Boshyan told Armenian media.

His comments came amid a series of diplomatic activities involving senior Armenian officials. Last week, National Assembly Speaker Alen Simonyan attended a ceremonial session of the Interparliamentary Assembly of CIS member states in Saint Petersburg. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is scheduled to visit Moscow on May 9 to participate in events commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War.

At the same time, Boshyan noted a noticeable lull in Armenia’s declared intention to join the European Union, Caliber.Az reports.

After the adoption of the law initiating the EU accession process, Deputy Foreign Minister Paruyr Hovhannisyan, who had been in charge of European affairs, was appointed Armenia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations. No official statement has been made regarding who will now oversee the European integration portfolio.

According to Boshyan, Pashinyan’s trip to Moscow may be tied to the broader geopolitical strategy of US President Donald Trump, especially in terms of his ongoing economic confrontation with rival powers.

“It’s possible that people close to him explained that the direction he’s pursuing won’t work,” Boshyan said. “Neither the US nor the EU is interested in Armenia, no one is concerned about the Prime Minister’s approval ratings, and maintaining relations with Russia is the only path through which Armenia can salvage its economy.”

“That’s why they’re now running to Moscow,” he continued, adding, “And this is evident not only in the May 9 visit—I know there have been many statements emphasizing the need to reinvigorate relations with Russia.”

Boshyan also linked this shift to what he described as Russia’s “obvious advantage” in the conflict in Ukraine. He believes the Armenian government has come to understand that developments in the region, and particularly in Armenia, will depend on agreements between Moscow and Washington.

“For the past three years, Armenia’s policy has been based on the assumption that the US would prevail in its confrontation with Russia. That hasn’t happened,” Boshyan said.

“I am convinced that Russia will insist on keeping the post-Soviet space under its influence. And this means that no one in the West will help the Armenian government. They can only negotiate with Russia—and to some extent, with Iran,” he stated.

Turning to the European Union, Boshyan described it as a large market and a potentially significant economic force, but not a geopolitical power centre. “The EU itself is in poor condition today, since it remains militarily and resource-wise dependent on the US,” he argued.

“This will ultimately lead to Russia and the United States sitting down at the negotiating table and making decisions about the three countries in the region—Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia—without even inviting Armenia,” Boshyan warned. “This is the consequence of a ‘sinusoidal’ policy, where on one hand you declare closeness to Russia and participate in the May 9 parade, and on the other hand, you vote against Russia or, while remaining in the Eurasian Economic Union, adopt legislation initiating EU accession, which is nonsensical.”

It is worth noting that on April 18, Armenia voted in favour of a UN General Assembly resolution that included accusations against Russia. The resolution’s preamble referred to “Russian aggression against Ukraine and Georgia” and mentioned ongoing efforts to establish a special tribunal on Russian actions in Ukraine.

By Tamilla Hasanova