Politico: Europe’s growing reliance on US gas raises strategic alarm

The European Union is on course to source nearly half of its natural gas from the United States by the end of the decade, raising concerns about a growing strategic vulnerability as relations with Washington deteriorate.

New data shared with POLITICO shows the EU already imports roughly a quarter of its gas from the US, a share expected to rise sharply as the bloc completes a phased ban on Russian gas imports.

The EU’s growing reliance on American liquefied natural gas has raised alarm among energy analysts.

The shift “has created a potentially high-risk new geopolitical dependency,” said Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, which produced the research.

“An over-reliance on US gas contradicts the [EU policy] of enhancing EU energy security through diversification, demand reduction and boosting renewables supply,” she said.

Concerns are also mounting among EU member states, with diplomats warning that the Trump administration could leverage the bloc’s energy dependence to advance US foreign policy objectives.

While “there are other sources of gas in the world” beyond the US, the risk of Trump cutting off supplies to Europe following an incursion in Greenland “should be taken into account,” one senior EU diplomat told POLITICO, speaking on condition of anonymity. But “hopefully we'll not get there,” the official added.

The EU’s vulnerability is rooted in the rapid energy realignment that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At that time, Russian gas accounted for 50 per cent of EU imports. That figure has since fallen to about 12 per cent, according to data from the Brussels-based economic think tank Bruegel.

To replace Russian pipeline gas, the EU turned heavily to liquefied natural gas shipped from the United States, then considered a reliable ally. The US is now the world’s largest LNG exporter, with American supplies accounting for around 27 per cent of EU gas imports—up from just 5 per cent in 2021. France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium are the largest importers, while the non-EU UK is also a major buyer of US LNG.

According to IEEFA data, a series of new contracts with US energy companies could push American gas to as much as 40 per cent of the EU’s total gas consumption by 2030, and about 80 per cent of the bloc’s overall LNG imports.

By Sabina Mammadli