Pundit: Pashinyan's anti-Russian potential comes with Western price tag

In an interview with Armenian media, political analyst Suren Surenyants pondered on the ramifications of Armenia's pivot to the West.

"The US and EU have pledged to give Armenia $350 million to strengthen its prime minister's power. The goal is to enable the prime minister to make unpopular decisions in relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Armenia and Russia," he said, per Caliber.Az.

According to Surenyants, the West has recognised the anti-Russian potential of the Armenian authorities and paid the price for it. This highlights the cost of the country's current authorities governing it.

During a high-level meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan secured $65 million from the US and €270 million from the EU for Armenia's development.

Surenyants believes that the value of such a meeting can be determined by assessing its pros and cons. In this case, the Armenian authorities' anti-Russian rhetoric is the price that has to be paid. The ruling power in Armenia will have to bring Armenian-Russian relations to the point of no return.

The "strong support" announced by the Armenian authorities from the West has provoked inflated expectations in the society, according to Surenyants. However, the $350 million pledged is not enough to change Armenia's strategic orientation.

Surenyants recalls the events of 2018 when Nikol Pashinyan had just come to power. At the Brussels airport before returning to Yerevan, the prime minister said that the EU had promised several hundred million. He believed that the Europeans had underestimated the Armenian revolution, which did not need such large sums of money. The revolution was rated higher than statehood and changed the country's strategic orientation.

Surenyants is convinced that the amount pledged in Brussels is not sufficient for economic diversification, which the Armenian authorities declared one of the goals of the trilateral meeting.

"Understanding the significance of diversification for $350 million is important. If Moscow perceives it as an anti-Russian move and decides to increase the price of gas, then that $350 million will turn into a loss. Even though the European Union had promised $2.5 billion to Armenia a few years ago, only $500 million has been distributed so far, and that wasn't enough for diversification. We are still heavily reliant on Russia, and our economic dependence on them has only increased," explains Surenyants.

The expert also points to the fact that this meeting was aimed at weakening the influence of Russia and Iran in the region. He believes that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev understood it very well. On the one hand, he agreed with Moscow and Tehran, showing Armenia's lack of loyalty, and on the other hand, Baku clearly realises that the ring around Iran is shrinking in the face of the US, Israel and the UK. These countries will not take steps against Baku; moreover, in the case of an anti-Iran campaign, Azerbaijan will become the West's number one ally.

Surenyants believes that none of the geopolitical centres will ally any of the South Caucasus republics against the other. Major geopolitical players need the South Caucasus region united; they cannot spread influence when dividing lines are drawn.

Armenia's leadership in its relations with the West is only based on an anti-Russian position. However, according to Surenyants, many valuable issues could be incorporated into Armenia's relations with the West without damaging Armenian-Russian relations.