ISW: Russia allegedly sends oil, weapons to North Korea for troops in Ukraine war

Russia has reportedly provided North Korea with substantial military aid, including air defence systems, missiles, and over one million barrels of oil, in exchange for the provision of North Korean manpower for its ongoing war in Ukraine.

The Open-Source Centre, a UK-based research group, analyzed satellite imagery and confirmed that since March 2024, Russia has sent more than one million barrels (approximately 56,000 tons) of oil to North Korea, Caliber.Az reports citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

This has been tracked through sightings of North Korean tankers arriving empty at Russian oil terminals in the Far East and departing full, with a total of 43 trips observed in the past eight months.

This oil supply is believed to be a direct exchange for North Korean military support, which has included troops and weapons to bolster Russia’s forces. The UK's Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, confirmed that the oil deliveries are linked to North Korea’s provision of manpower and military supplies to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. The illicit trade of oil violates United Nations (UN) sanctions that have been imposed on North Korea, aimed at curbing its weapons programs and limiting its access to international markets.

In addition to the oil shipments, South Korea’s National Security Advisor, Shin Won-sik, disclosed that Russia has supplied North Korea with air defence equipment and anti-aircraft missiles to enhance its defense capabilities. While the exact details of these systems remain unspecified, there are concerns that Russia may have provided North Korea with advanced air defense technology, possibly including the S-400 missile systems. This raises alarm, as the S-400 systems are highly advanced and their delivery to North Korea would mark a significant shift in Russia’s international military alliances.

Experts suggest that Russia may have chosen to provide North Korea with shorter-range missile systems or potentially cannon-based air defense units, given the ongoing strain on Russia’s own air defence production capabilities. Despite earlier decisions to delay providing such systems to countries like India and Iran, it seems Russia may prioritize strengthening its military ties with North Korea as it continues to face challenges in replenishing its own missile and radar stocks, particularly in the wake of extensive Ukrainian drone and missile attacks.

This growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea has raised serious concerns about violations of UN sanctions and the potential geopolitical implications of such a shift in alliances. As both nations continue to evade international scrutiny, the ramifications for global security remain uncertain.

By Vafa Guliyeva