Russia continues to use Shahed drones to offset degradation of precision munition supply

Russian forces continue to use Shahed drones and other lower-precision systems to offset the degradation of Russia’s precision munition supply. 

Russian forces launched 12 Shahed-131/136 drones at southern Ukraine from the Sea of Azov on the night of April 18 to 19, 10 of which Ukrainian air defence shot down, Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“Russian military bloggers have recently discussed the importance of targeting Ukrainian air defence capabilities in advance of any potential Ukrainian counteroffensives, and the Shahed strikes were likely intended in part to set conditions to do so,” ISW reports.

It adds that Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuri Ihnat noted that Russia has used almost all of its strategic missile stockpile since September 11, 2022, and that Ukrainian forces have shot down 750 of the total 850 missiles that Russian forces have launched at Ukrainian during this period.

Russian forces have switched to cheaper and shorter-range options such as guided aerial bombs and have removed Kh-50-type missiles from storage for restoration. Ihnat was likely referring to Kh-55 Soviet-era air-launched cruise missiles, as Russia is slated to begin production on newer Kh-50 cruise missiles in the summer of 2023. Russia may be removing Kh-55 cruise missiles from storage to refit them for future strikes on Ukraine, the analysis notes.

Key takeaways:

- The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) appears to be conducting a large-scale overhaul of domestic security organs.

- Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on April 19 that Ukrainian forces are already conducting some counteroffensive actions.

- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna.

- Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk frontline, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast.

- Russian officials continue to prepare to send electronic summonses and establish a digital registry for those eligible for military service.

- A State Duma deputy proposed a bill that would expand contract conditions for the OMON and SOBR units of Rosgvardia and set conditions for the mobilization of Rosgvardia reservists.

- Russian officials and occupation authorities continue efforts to further integrate occupied territories into the Russian economic system.