Russian elites embrace Ukraine war amid Kremlin pressure

In a recent article by Foreign Affairs, the focus is on how Russian elites have come to accept and even endorse the ongoing war in Ukraine, marking a significant shift from initial shock and dissent.

When the conflict began, Russia's wealthy and influential individuals faced sanctions and condemnation from the West, leading many to criticize the invasion as a disastrous mistake. Voices such as Roman Trotsenko, former head of Russia's largest shipbuilding company, and music producer Iosif Prigozhin openly condemned President Vladimir Putin and his government, calling them "criminals" and expressing dismay at their policies.

However, as 2023 progressed, a notable change occurred among Russian elites. Many began to publicly support the war or, at the very least, refrain from criticizing it. Musicians started performing in occupied territories, and figures like Mikhail Fridman returned from abroad, citing the hardships of living under sanctions in the West compared to the perceived stability in Russia. Criticism from within the elite circles diminished significantly, reflecting a growing acceptance that the war, while not universally endorsed, was a reality they needed to accommodate.

This shift in perspective among Russian elites can be attributed to several factors. The Kremlin's crackdown on dissent has fostered an atmosphere of caution and compliance. Moreover, there is a prevailing belief among elites that protesting or opposing the war is futile. Crucially, many now view the invasion through a lens of perceived Russian success on the battlefield, with Moscow making incremental gains against Ukraine despite international pressure.

For these elites, discussions have moved from questioning the wisdom of the invasion to speculating on its potential outcomes. Some believe a significant military victory could prompt Putin to pause or conclude the conflict, while others suggest he may push further, potentially targeting cities like Kharkiv or even aiming for Kyiv itself. There is also speculation that Putin sees the conflict as part of a broader geopolitical strategy aimed at confronting the West, possibly extending to provocations against NATO members like Estonia or Latvia.

The prospect of such actions underscores a belief among Russian elites that Western resolve is wavering, making NATO's response to potential provocations uncertain. This uncertainty is seen as advantageous by some in Moscow, who perceive Western leaders as divided and ineffectual in the face of Russian assertiveness. Furthermore, there is speculation that Russia's leadership may see geopolitical crises, such as those involving NATO, as opportunities to influence global perceptions and domestic politics, particularly in the United States.

Despite hopes among some Russian elites for a swift conclusion to the conflict, there is a growing resignation that the war may continue indefinitely. This prospect, while unsettling, has fostered a sense of unity among the elite class, who increasingly view Putin as their best guarantee of stability and influence amidst strained relations with the West.