Trump’s Patriots may deter Russian strikes, but Ukraine needs much more, analysts say

Heavy thuds, resembling rapid hip-hop beats, echo through the night as the US-made MIM-104 Patriot air defence systems spring into action. Each Patriot launcher is capable of firing up to 32 missiles in mere seconds, intercepting Russian ballistic missiles hurtling towards their targets. The missiles travel at supersonic speeds, and their impact produces a brilliant, split-second explosion followed by a powerful shockwave.

“That’s the kind of explosion that makes me feel safe,” Ihor Lysenko, a 17-year-old in Kyiv told Al Jazeera. He believes the “technology is pretty reliable”.

Originally developed in the 1970s to counter Soviet missiles, Kyiv first received Patriots in April 2023 from Washington and several Western European allies.

Within weeks, the systems successfully intercepted Russia’s Kinzhal (Dagger) intercontinental ballistic missiles, launched from fighter jets at altitudes exceeding 12km.

These Kinzhals typically fly in the Earth’s stratosphere to maintain speed, which Russian President Vladimir Putin claims is ten times the speed of sound, rendering Western air defences “useless”.

However, over the past two years, approximately ten Patriot systems in Ukraine—exact numbers remain classified—stationed in Kyiv and Odesa, have shot down dozens of Kinzhals, along with cruise and ballistic missiles (including some from North Korea), fighter jets, helicopters, and attack drones.

Despite their effectiveness, Patriots are costly. “It’s similar to hammering a nail with an electronic microscope,” as a single Patriot missile costs several million dollars, whereas Russian drones are a hundred times cheaper.

Yet, the Patriots are not infallible.

In late April, a Russian missile struck a two-storey apartment block in Kyiv, killing 12 people, injuring 87, and causing extensive damage to nearby buildings.

On July 13, US President Donald Trump announced plans to supply Kyiv with additional Patriot systems—by selling them to NATO allies, who would then transfer them to Ukraine.

“We will send them Patriots, which they desperately need,” Trump told reporters. “Putin really surprised a lot of people. He talks nice, and then he bombs everybody in the evening.”

On July 14, Trump specified that 17 Patriot systems would be delivered during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

“It’s everything. It’s Patriots. It’s all of them. It’s a full complement with the batteries,” Trump said, referring to an unnamed Western country that had “17 Patriots ready to be shipped”.

Days earlier, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz indicated Berlin’s readiness to procure more Patriots.

Kyiv-based analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told Al Jazeera that while the new Patriots will reduce the lethality of Russian air raids in major Ukrainian cities, they won’t cross any “red lines” for Putin.

“Russia occasionally cried about red lines when it came to long-range weaponry for strikes on Russia,” Fesenko explained. “There are no red lines with Patriots.”

However, Patriots alone won’t solve Ukraine’s air defence challenges.

“The problem is not just about the Patriots,” Fesenko added. “We don’t just need the Patriots to fight ballistic missiles. Now Russia’s main strike weapon is drones. They cause most of the damage.”

Most casualties and destruction result from swarms of hundreds of attack drones flying at altitudes up to 5km, which evade Ukraine’s current air defence and mobile units armed with machine guns.

Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of Ukraine’s military General Staff, stated that Ukraine requires up to 25 more Patriot systems to protect key cities.

While details of the new Patriots’ arrival remain unclear, some see Trump’s pledge as a political move.

“He does that to support his image that has been tarnished domestically and internationally,” Romanenko told Al Jazeera.

Romanenko emphasised that Ukraine urgently needs drone interceptors capable of speeds up to 500 km/h, as Russia equips new unmanned vehicles with jet engines.

“The quantity is what matters. If they launch more than 700 [drones per attack], if they are capable of upping it to 1,000, then we need hundreds of interceptors,” he said.

Moscow carefully analyses drone swarm routes and frequently changes them to avoid interception, so Kyiv requires light planes with electronic jamming, helicopters, and air defence systems able to counter aerodynamic targets.

Recently, the Ukrainian air force announced that German-made Skynex air defence systems shot down six Russian Geran drones.

The Skynex uses a 35mm automatic cannon firing up to 1,000 rounds per minute, with programmable ammunition that detonates near targets, releasing a cloud of projectiles.

However, Ukraine has only two Skynex systems, with no details on further deliveries.

According to Andrey Pronin, a pioneer in Ukrainian drone warfare, the Defence Ministry’s efforts on drone interceptors have been slow and “on an amateur level”.

Pronin revealed his involvement in developing an interceptor drone capable of pursuing Russian loitering munitions, which was battle-tested but failed to attract Defence Ministry interest.

“The ministry is such a hole. Things haven’t moved at all,” he lamented.

By Aghakazim Guliyev