Saudis resume US defence talks after pause from Israel-Hamas war

Saudi Arabia has resumed talks with the US about forging closer defence ties after a pause following the start of the Israel-Hamas war in early October, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Discussions took place in the town of Alula in northwestern Saudi Arabia between de-facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and US senators earlier this month, said the people, asking not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. On the agenda was a revival of earlier negotiations about a defence pact that would also have included a historic tie-up between Saudi Arabia and Israel, they said, Bloomberg reports.

MBS, as the 38-year-old leader is known, still sees opportunities for greater US cooperation despite anger across the Arab world over the continuing strikes by Israel, a key US ally, on Hamas, and the deaths of Palestinians in Gaza, said two people with knowledge of his thinking. The US is also at the heart of simmering regional tensions following a deadly attack on American forces in Jordan, alongside other airstrikes.

A major stumbling block to the talks is that Saudi Arabia has long said any deal with Israel would be conditional on the creation of an independent state for Palestinians, an issue firmly opposed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. That resolve has only strengthened since the outbreak of war with Hamas, a group Israel says needs to be completely destroyed to ensure its own safety.

Treading Carefully

Given the likely backlash among Arabs and Muslims to any Israel deal, Saudi Arabia must tread carefully.

The kingdom is sending what it hopes are the right signals to all parties concerned: assuring that any agreement is now conditional on a state for Palestinians, pushing for a cease-fire in Gaza while engaging the US on postwar scenarios.

The Saudi defence ministry referred questions to the government, whose centre for international communications didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The US National Security Council also declined to comment.

Critical Visitors

Prince Mohammed’s guests included erstwhile critics such as New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who previously signed a letter to his father King Salman expressing concern about “systematic human rights abuses” — including the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. Another visitor was Mark Warner, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and also a Democrat, who in 2018 cited “careless bombings” by Saudi Arabia in Yemen.

Of mutual interest between Saudi Arabia and the US is how to counter the Houthi group in Yemen, who MBS has been trying to secure a peace deal with after a decade of fighting. The US is currently carrying out airstrikes against the Houthis in response to persistent attacks by the Iran-backed group on shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting global trade.

The US is also weighing a response to the attack in Jordan, which President Joe Biden has blamed on Tehran-backed militias. Iran has urged the US to use diplomacy to ease tensions, while denying involvement in the strike.

Before Oct. 7, when Hamas triggered the war with Israel by invading the south of the country, a US-Saudi defence pact and US assistance in launching a civil nuclear program were among the kingdom’s main preconditions for normalizing relations with Israel. There was talk of rolling everything into one deal that would ease Congressional approval and help Biden notch a big foreign policy gain in an election year.

Everything changed after that date, as it became less likely than ever that the issue of a Palestinian state could be sidelined. But the way Iran was able to mobilize members of its so-called axis of resistance, including Hamas and the Houthis, in such a coordinated manner served as a stark reminder to the Saudi leadership of the serious threats posed by the Islamic Republic. That’s despite a China-brokered rapprochement forged with Tehran last year and Riyadh’s efforts to build closer diplomatic and economic ties with its longtime rival.

Mark Kelly, a Democratic senator from Arizona and a former officer in the US Navy who was among those who met with MBS this month, said in a statement that he spoke to the crown prince about his time in the region during the 1990-91 Gulf War and “opportunities to strengthen their countries’ long military relationship to tackle shared threats like Iran.”

Defence Partnership

MBS himself is focused first and foremost on repairing and bolstering the defence relationship with Washington, said the people informed about his thinking. Demonstrating that Saudi Arabia is a safe place despite surrounding conflicts has become more urgent as the country tries to bring some of the world’s biggest corporations, investors and tourists to the country, all part of an ambitious plan to transform the Saudi economy.

One immediate priority for MBS and the Saudi leadership is to persuade Biden to ease or lift a freeze on the sale of offensive weapons imposed on the kingdom three years ago, to replenish stockpiles of missiles, bombs and precision-guided munitions, said Bilal Saab, director of the defence and security program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

“They’re already tied to the hip with the US,” said Saab, referring to Washington’s role as Saudi Arabia’s top arms supplier and that most weapons systems in the kingdom are American.

No Alternatives

Saudi Arabia believes strongly there are no viable alternatives to its defence and security relationship with Washington, said Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.

Dubowitz, who is close to Israeli, Saudi and US officials involved in the normalization talks, said given the complexities that come with needing a government in Israel willing to entertain a two-state solution with Palestinians, bolstering the US-Saudi defence relationship may be the only doable piece in the short-term.

He said the Saudi message now to all US officials is “we need America and America needs us.”