Survey shows Le Pen well ahead in France's 2027 presidential contest

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen would comfortably win the first round of the 2027 presidential election if voting were held now, while former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe has emerged as the strongest centrist challenger, according to a new OpinionWay poll published on July 9.

The survey, conducted for Les Échos and Radio Classique, places Le Pen on 34% to 36% of first-round voting intentions, despite her recent appeal court conviction over the misuse of public funds in the European Parliament assistants case, BFMTV writes.

Pollsters said the conviction had not weakened her standing. Instead, her formal announcement that she will run for president appears to have reinforced support among voters.

"Marine Le Pen is back at levels comparable to Jordan Bardella's strongest polling. There has been no negative impact from her conviction. On the contrary, her declaration of candidacy has had a positive effect," Bruno Jeanbart, Vice-President of OpinionWay, told Les Échos.

The poll suggests the battle for a place in the second-round run-off is centred on former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Philippe, leader of the centre-right Horizons party, would secure 22% of the vote if he were the sole centrist candidate. If both Philippe and Attal entered the race, Philippe would retain a clear advantage with 18%, while Attal would fall to 7%.

Should Attal run as the only centrist candidate, he would receive 16%, narrowly ahead of Mélenchon and potentially qualify for the second round.

Mélenchon remains the strongest contender on the left, polling between 13% and 15% depending on the electoral scenario. However, the survey indicates he would fail to reach the run-off regardless of whether Philippe or Attal represents the political centre.

Other left-wing candidates trail significantly, with Raphaël Glucksmann polling 9% to 10%, Marine Tondelier 5%, and Fabien Roussel 2%.

Conservative Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau receives between 8% and 12% of voting intentions, leaving him well outside second-round contention. Meanwhile, far-right politician Éric Zemmour polls 3% to 4%, while far-left candidate Nathalie Arthaud finishes last with 1%.

France's first-round presidential election is scheduled for 18 April 2027, with the run-off set for 2 May. The latest poll suggests Le Pen remains the clear frontrunner as campaigning gathers pace nine months before voters head to the polls.

By Aghakazim Guliyev