Sweden edges closer to sending Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine

Sweden’s Saab JAS 39 Gripen, a high-tech fighter developed during the Cold War with the Soviet Union, could be about to see hot conflict with Moscow for the first time. 

Over recent weeks in Sweden, the centre-right government has been gently preparing the ground for a potential deployment of the aircraft to Ukraine following announcements by European neighbours Norway, Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands that they plan to send Lockheed Martin F-16 jets to Kyiv, Politico reports.

Defense Minister Pål Jonson said earlier this month that he had instructed Swedish military leadership to examine the potential impact of providing various types of support to Ukraine’s fighter-jet capability, including exporting or donating Gripen planes. The military is to report back by November 6, Jonson said.

“This analysis is going to need to look at how our defensive capabilities are affected, both our operative capability here and now and our long-term defence finances,” he told reporters in Stockholm. 

The F-16 decisions are making the Gripen's deployment an active point of discussion.

Stefan Ungerth, a specialist on air defence at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, called it “a matter of time.” 

If Sweden were to decide to send the jets, experts suggest it could take up to a year before they are flying over Ukraine, as pilots and engineers would need training on its unfamiliar systems. Still, the planes could have a big impact.

“Even a relatively small number of planes, say 10, would be of great benefit both operatively and in terms of morale for Ukraine,” Ungerth said.  

The potential deployment of Gripens by Stockholm comes amid rising concern in Kyiv about a potential wobbling in the steadfastness of Western military support, especially in the U.S., where Republican members of the House of Representatives have increasingly turned against further aid.

Meanwhile, in Slovakia, the recent reelection of Robert Fico as prime minister was also met with alarm. Fico has proposed ending military support for his country’s eastern neighbour. 

But in Sweden, as in other Nordic countries and across the Baltic states, where geographical proximity to Russia has heightened security fears, there is little sign of any wavering.

Support for supplying arms to Ukraine among Sweden’s citizens is among the strongest in Europe, polling suggests, and in his comments Defense Minister Jonson doubled down on his government’s commitment. 

“I know there is an understanding that the ground is shaking under the international coalition but that isn’t my understanding,” Jonson said. “It is important now that we are among several countries to step up their support, and our 14th support package should be seen as a signal of the deep Swedish engagement to long-term and sustainable support.” 

Sweden has already sent portable anti-tank missiles, armoured vehicles and an artillery system. The 14th package included spare parts and ammunition among other things.

That support is evident in Stockholm, where locals gather on a central square every Monday to protest the Russian invasion. 

From a stage, former member of the European Parliament Gunnar Hökmark called on his fellow Swedes to keep their focus on the conflict and not look away.

In the crowd, Sture Vikman, a 70-year-old pensioner, said Sweden should send Gripens to Ukraine.

“That would be best for Ukraine and the whole of Europe,” he said. “If they lose, we all lose.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long made clear his military wants the Gripen, with experts suggesting he could seek 16 to 20 planes. 

During an August visit to Stockholm, the Ukrainian president called Gripen “Sweden’s pride.” 

“It is the type of pride you should share with your friends,” he said.

Air capability

The Gripen could meaningfully help Ukraine’s efforts to control its airspace. It is seen as relatively cheap and easy to maintain and it can operate from shorter, narrower runways, including improvised landing strips on straight stretches of highway. This reduces the risk of aircraft congregating at a larger base and being destroyed by a single enemy attack. 

Analysts at the Royal United Services Institute, a U.K. think tank, noted in a report last year that the Gripen is specifically equipped to counter Russia's fighter and surface-to-air missile radar. 

In a promotional video from Saab, a pilot can be seen touching down on a highway in the south of Sweden and rapidly coming to a stop. 

“Gripen has capabilities that are very relevant from a Ukrainian perspective,” said Pär Henriksson, a spokesperson for Saab. “Maybe most importantly, Gripen was from the start designed to counter the threat from Russia.”

The plane has already been sold to countries including Brazil and Hungary and observers say if it is deployed in Ukraine and performs well that could help build its reputation. 

But there is worry about a trial by fire in Ukraine. 

As recently as May, Jonson was saying Sweden couldn’t afford to send any Gripens to Ukraine because its national defence strategy has long relied heavily on air power and weakening it would be too much of a risk. 

But by August, pressure on the governing Moderate Party of Jonson and Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson began to grow when junior coalition partners the Christian Democrats and the Liberals said Sweden should send the planes, echoing a call by the largest opposition party, the Social Democrats. 

“We can’t let Russia win,” Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson said then. “The Gripen would make a big difference for Ukraine.”

Both the government and the Social Democrats have added one caveat though, saying Sweden must be a member of NATO — and party to its mutual defence commitments — before it can risk sending any Gripens. Sweden’s NATO membership is still being held up by Turkey and Hungary. 

On the square in central Stockholm, a young Ukrainian boy sang his country’s national anthem while supporters waved Ukrainian flags. 

Vikman, the pensioner, said he could see that Sweden had to be careful that donating jets didn’t leave it vulnerable.

“But now in the first place, we have to help Ukraine.”