FM Sybiha: “Russia is not winning its war against Ukraine”

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha outlined the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war in a post on X, emphasising that Russia is facing both battlefield setbacks and economic decline, and is falling short of victory in its conflict with Ukraine.

Sybiha stated that in 2025, Russia suffered severe losses, with 480,000 soldiers killed or wounded, while its territorial gains in Ukraine amounted to only 0.7% for the year. In January 2026, despite ongoing losses, Russia added just 0.04% to its occupation—the lowest rate in the past nine months, Caliber.Az reports.

Russia is not winning its war against Ukraine. In fact, this war is a failure for Moscow.

In 2025, Russia lost 480,000 soldiers injured and killed while occupying an additional 0.7% of Ukrainian territory.

In January 2026, despite losing over a 1,000 soldiers per day on…

— Andrii Sybiha 🇺🇦 (@andrii_sybiha) February 4, 2026

He noted that even with over 1,000 soldiers lost daily, Russia has been unable to make significant advances in seizing Ukrainian territory. Over the past 25 months, Russia has managed to occupy only 21% of Donetsk Oblast, far less than the areas still under Ukrainian control.

The economic situation in Russia is also deteriorating. In 2025, Russian regional budgets recorded a record deficit of $21 billion—eight times higher than in 2023. Meanwhile, the Russian economy continues to decline, with 15% of enterprises closing and another 10% at risk of shutdown.

“Russia's inadequate budget planning will result in even larger budget gaps. The gap between Russian finance ministry figures and reality will result in at least $25 billion less oil revenue for the Russian budget this year,” Sybiha wrote.

He noted that Ukraine inflicted $15 billion in damage on Russian military targets in 2025: “And the campaign will continue. The war is coming back to where it came from—to Russia. And it's only fair.”

“It will only get worse for Putin, both on the battlefield and in the economy. Additional sanctions pressure, particularly against Russia's shadow fleet and energy, as well as increased support for Ukraine's defence and resilience, are critical. 

The more pressure on Moscow and support for Ukraine, the sooner the war will be over. The sooner Putin loses any illusions about his ability to achieve anything militarily, the sooner peace efforts will succeed,” Sybiha concluded.

By Jeyhun Aghazada