Ukraine, Russia face grueling summer ahead With limited prospects for major advances

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its third summer, the conflict has settled into a protracted and bloody stalemate along the 700-mile front line.

Both sides are engaged in a tense and deadly standoff, maneuvering for tactical advantages without making significant territorial gains, Caliber.Az reports per foreign media.

Ukraine's forces have recently thwarted a significant Russian offensive aimed at capturing the Kharkiv region. While the Ukrainian military has successfully repelled the attack and is now launching counteroffensives in villages on the northeastern border, Russian troops are pushing towards a vital supply route that supports Ukraine’s defence of several besieged cities to the southeast.

The summer of 2024 is expected to be marked by intense and costly fighting, with high casualties on both sides and no clear path to a major breakthrough. For Ukraine, the focus is on using newly provided Western weapons to maintain their defensive positions. Russia, on the other hand, is likely to continue its slow and costly strategy, prioritizing gradual territorial gains over major advances.

With the front line largely static, both sides are relying on deep-strike tactics to gain an edge before the onset of winter. Russia has been targeting Ukrainian power infrastructure with missiles and explosive drones, leading to significant blackouts across Ukraine. Additionally, Russian forces have been using glide bombs, including a new 3-ton version deployed in June, to attack Ukrainian defensive positions.

In response, Ukraine is employing long-range missiles from the US and its allies to disrupt Russian operations in Crimea. While the US has restricted Ukraine from using the longer-range ATACMS missiles against Russian territory, Crimea remains a legitimate target under international law. Ukraine has successfully targeted Russian military assets on the peninsula, including advanced air-defense systems and military transport ferries.

In late May, Russia’s offensive into the Kharkiv region initially caught Ukrainian forces off guard, resulting in the capture of several villages and parts of Vovchansk. However, Ukrainian reinforcements managed to halt the Russian advance, diminishing the strategic value of this new buffer zone for Russia. The US has also provided Ukraine with weapons that have been used to strike Russian positions, further complicating Russia’s efforts.

One notable Ukrainian unit, “Yasni Ochi” (Clear Eyes), has been effectively using drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes against Russian positions. These drones range from small explosive devices to larger craft capable of carrying significant payloads. This unit's efforts have been instrumental in defending the Kharkiv region and preparing new defensive positions.

Despite ongoing recruitment efforts, Russia’s advances in the eastern Donetsk region have been slow and costly. In June, Russian forces managed to infiltrate the outskirts of Chasiv Yar and push northwest from Avdiivka towards a crucial supply route, though these gains have come at a steep price with substantial Russian casualties reported.

As summer progresses, there is uncertainty about whether Russia will launch a large-scale offensive. Ukrainian intelligence is adept at detecting potential Russian movements, but interpreting these signals and preparing for possible large-scale assaults remains challenging for Ukrainian strategists and their Western allies.