Ukrainian intel: Oversupply, costs, and sanctions make Russia heavily reliant on China

Russia is becoming increasingly reliant on the export of energy resources and metals, with the majority of these goods sold to China, according to a report by the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).

The SVR reported that in the first nine months of 2025, trade between Russia and China fell to $163.6 billion, a 9.4% decrease compared to the same period in 2024.

Both Chinese exports to Russia and Russian exports to China declined, by 11.3% to $73.6 billion and 7.7% to $90 billion, respectively.

The primary factor driving the decline was the drop in energy prices. The total value of Russian energy exports to China from January through September fell by 18.9%, or approximately $14 billion. Oil exports fell by 8.1% in physical volumes and 21% in monetary terms due to the lower Brent crude price.

Oversaturation of the Russian market with Chinese automobiles also contributed to the slowdown. After record deliveries in 2024, demand dropped sharply by 56%.

Logistical disruptions added further pressure. Truck queues formed at the China-Kazakhstan border during autumn, and transport costs from China to Russia rose significantly: rail shipments increased by 25% to $5,000 per shipment, while road transport costs rose 35% to $15,000 for a 20-ton truck.

In addition, some maritime operators, including CStar Line (UAE) and STF Shipping (China), reduced their voyages to Russian ports due to financial restrictions.

The SVR highlighted that Russia’s heavy reliance on energy and metal exports to China makes its economy increasingly vulnerable to fluctuations in Chinese demand and strengthens Moscow’s dependence on Beijing.

By Tamilla Hasanova