US intel warns Iran unlikely to ease Hormuz Strait chokehold soon

Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is unlikely to loosen its hold on the Strait of Hormuz in the near term, according to sources familiar with the matter, underscoring the strategic leverage Tehran continues to wield over global energy flows.

The findings suggest that Iran views its influence over the waterway — which carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil trade — as a critical bargaining tool in its confrontation with Washington, Caliber.Az reports per British media.

Analysts say the continued disruption could allow Tehran to sustain pressure on US President Donald Trump as the conflict enters its fifth week.

The reports also highlight the broader geopolitical risks of the standoff, with experts warning that attempts to forcibly reopen the strait could prove costly and potentially escalate into a prolonged conflict.

Tehran has maintained its grip on the passage through a mix of tactics, including actions that have made commercial shipping increasingly difficult and expensive to insure. According to analysts, these measures have already contributed to higher global energy prices and supply disruptions in countries dependent on Gulf exports.

“With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform, signalling confidence in the prospect of restoring access to the waterway.

However, the administration’s position appears mixed. A White House official said Trump remains “confident that the strait will be open very soon,” while also acknowledging that other countries “have far more at stake in preventing this outcome” than the United States.

Military and strategic analysts caution that any operation to secure the strait would be highly complex. The narrow shipping lanes, combined with Iran’s proximity to the route, create vulnerabilities that could be exploited through asymmetric tactics such as drone strikes or missile attacks.

“All it takes to disrupt traffic and deter vessels from passing through is one or two drones,” said Ali Vaez, highlighting the ease with which Iran could interfere with maritime movement.

Iran’s ability to sustain pressure is also seen as a long-term strategic asset. The country could potentially use its control to extract economic benefits, including passage fees, as part of post-war reconstruction efforts.

“Tehran is going to look to maintain the leverage that they have rediscovered by disrupting traffic” through the strait, said Bill Burns, adding that Iran may seek “long-term deterrence and security guarantees” alongside material gains in any eventual negotiations.

“That,” he said, “sets up a really difficult negotiation right now.”

Experts note that even partial efforts to reopen the strait could face sustained resistance, given Iran’s capacity to project influence across the narrow but heavily trafficked maritime corridor. The risks, they argue, may deter direct intervention by the United States or its allies, leaving diplomatic and indirect pressure as the more likely avenues for resolution.

By Aghakazim Guliyev