Europe’s green energy shift risks new dependence on China

European countries’ growing reliance on Chinese green technology could expose them to serious national security risks, including cyber attacks, trade pressure, and potential supply chain disruption, according to new research.

The report warns that while Europe accelerates its transition to clean energy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, it may be replacing one vulnerability with another—heavy reliance on a single dominant supplier, the Financial Times writes.

Dependence on China is already structurally significant. China produces around 90% of the world’s solar modules, more than 80% of wind turbines, and 80% of battery cells, while also controlling key parts of global supply chains for rare earth elements and semiconductor materials.

A report co-authored by Michael Collins, a former deputy head of national security strategy in the UK Cabinet Office, argues that governments are not fully accounting for these risks as they expand imports of Chinese renewable technologies.

Collins warned that countries risked “sleepwalking into a scenario where you’re suddenly confronted with a big national security problem”.

He added that while the energy transition should continue, governments must also reduce exposure to single suppliers: “We don’t want to replace one set of dependencies on fossil fuel imports with a dependency on Chinese low-carbon technology.”

The report, co-authored with Michal Meidan of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, identifies eight categories of risk linked to over-reliance on Chinese green technology, based on interviews with energy and security experts.

Among the most significant concerns is supply chain disruption. The authors argue China could restrict exports of critical components, using its dominance as geopolitical leverage. Beijing has already expanded the use of export controls in strategic materials in recent years.

The report also highlights a potential indirect geopolitical risk involving the United States. It warns that Washington could pressure European allies to remove Chinese technology from energy systems or face tariffs, sanctions, or reduced security cooperation. It cites the example of the UK banning Huawei from its 5G networks after US pressure.

Cybersecurity risks are also discussed, including the theoretical possibility of remote interference with energy infrastructure. The authors note that Chinese cyber capabilities could allow access to “smart” energy systems, though they assess the likelihood of large-scale attacks as low.

The report states that Chinese cyber actors “almost certainly have the capability to remotely access Chinese manufactured or operated smart hardware or software”, but adds that the risk of coordinated disruption is “very unlikely”.

Particular attention is given to inverters—critical devices that connect renewable installations to power grids—which the report identifies as especially vulnerable components.

Chinese officials reject claims that such technologies pose security risks, arguing that renewable exports support global decarbonisation and reduce the risks associated with fossil fuel dependence.

In 2023, the Financial Times reported that the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre advised removing Chinese-supplied components from parts of Britain’s electricity transmission network over security concerns. British intelligence agencies have also examined China’s broader role in UK energy infrastructure.

More recently, the UK blocked plans for a Chinese wind turbine factory in Scotland on national security grounds, while Italy has introduced procurement rules requiring non-Chinese components in some solar projects.

Loom, the non-profit behind the report, argues that fossil fuel price shocks should not obscure emerging risks in clean energy supply chains. Its executive director Joss Garman said the transition is necessary but increasingly concentrated: “the cheapest route runs so overwhelmingly through China”.

However, Collins stresses that the risks differ fundamentally from fossil fuel dependence.

“If you fall out with China, once you’ve already installed all your low-carbon kit, your economy isn’t going to fall over within a matter of days, which is what we see with fossil fuels,” he said.

The report concludes that Europe faces a strategic balancing act: accelerating decarbonisation while avoiding the creation of new structural dependencies in the global energy system.

By Sabina Mammadli