Middle East conflict threatens African economies, stability

The ongoing war in the Middle East threatens Africa with sharp price hikes and potential new conflicts, according to TV5 Monde, citing analyses from the African Development Bank and the United Nations.

The Gulf states account for 15.8% of Africa’s imports and 10.9% of its exports. Disruptions in trade caused by the conflict could quickly escalate into a broader price crisis, driving up costs for fuel, food, transportation, and insurance, while weakening national currencies and shrinking government budgets across the continent.

Economic growth in most African countries remains below pre-pandemic levels. Analysts predict that if the Gulf conflict lasts more than six months, the continent’s GDP could decline by an average of 0.2% in 2026. 

Extended disruptions would further complicate supplies of energy and fertilizers, directly affecting livelihoods. So far, currencies in 29 African nations have already depreciated, raising external debt servicing costs and increasing import prices.

Some countries may see limited short-term gains. Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil exporter, and Mozambique, a major liquefied gas supplier, could benefit. Shifts in global shipping routes toward Africa’s southern tip may boost port revenues in Mozambique, South Africa, Namibia, and Mauritius, while Ethiopian Airlines could emerge as a critical air bridge linking Africa, Asia, and Europe.

Despite these pockets of opportunity, analysts warn that the economic benefits are unlikely to offset inflationary pressures and declining food security. The conflict could also heighten competition for influence, ports, and natural resources, potentially increasing regional tensions across the continent.

By Jeyhun Aghazada