What lies behind new Moscow-Pyongyang Axis

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who is on an official trip to North Korea, pledged Moscow's "complete support" to Pyongyang and thanked the country for its support in Ukraine.

As reported by Vedomosti, his trip sets the stage for a possible visit to the country by President Vladimir Putin, following North Korean Kim's visit to Russia in September. During that visit, the North Korean leader went "window shopping" in Russia's vast military industry and factories.

Minister Lavrov said he was there in North Korea to discuss implementing the arrangements made when the heads of state met last month, but did provide further details. 

According to the Business Insider, Russian officials — including the defense minister, the commander of the navy, and the commander of the long-range bomber force — reflected Moscow's desire to court Kim's regime during his visit in September, which is sitting on stockpiles of weapons and ammunition that Russia could make use of in Ukraine.

The publication writes: "Their presence also hints at what Russia may be willing to offer to get access to those stockpiles. There were multiple remarks about deeper defense cooperation, including discussion of 'strategic and tactical coordination, cooperation and mutual exchange' between their militaries during Kim's meeting with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to North Korean state media.

Over the course of the visit, an emphasis on the aerospace sector became clear. Kim met Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, toured production lines at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant, and inspected Russian fighters, bombers, and attack aircraft at Knevichi Airfield.

While many have noted that Russia's need for military support amid its struggles in Ukraine means Moscow may be more willing to help Pyongyang with its nuclear and missile programs, visits to so many aviation sites suggest Kim may have his eye on something else: updating North Korea's aging and dilapidated air force.

North Korea's air force, officially called the Korean People's Army Air and Anti-Air Force, or KPAAF, has been regarded as the weakest branch of the North Korean military for much of the past 30 years.

The KPAAF traditionally relied on the Soviet Union and China for new aircraft, but its access to those suppliers was largely curtailed after the Cold War. While some aircraft components have made it into North Korea, international sanctions placed on the country over its nuclear-weapons program during the past three decades have degraded its domestic aerospace industry, preventing it from building its own jets.

Today, the KPAAF can really only boast about its size. With an estimated 110,000 personnel, it is the second-largest branch of the military, with more than 900 combat aircraft, according to a 2021 US Defense Intelligence Agency report. (Other estimates put that fleet at about 500 combat aircraft.)

Almost all those aircraft are hopelessly outdated. About 400 are believed to be MiG-15s, with another 350 believed to be MiG-17s, -19s, and -21s — the most recent of which was introduced in the late 1950s. The KPAAF also has an estimated 80 Il-28 1950s-era bombers and 200 AN-2 propeller-driven biplanes, which first flew in the late 1940s.

The KPAAF does have a small number of more modern MiG-29 fighters, MiG-23 interceptors, and Su-25 attack aircraft that were acquired in the late 1980s and early 1990s and are tasked with defending Pyongyang.

Despite its size and a recent uptick in activity, the KPAAFs combat capabilities are likely minimal compared to its enemies'. In addition to preventing acquisition of new combat aircraft, international sanctions prohibit the sale of spare parts and jet fuel, further hampering the KPAAF.

Consequently, the KPAAF has had to cannibalize many of its aircraft for spare parts to ensure that an acceptable portion of its inventory remains airworthy. Only about 18 of the original 35 MiG-29s are believed to be serviceable, for instance, and KPAAF pilots are estimated to get just 12 to 25 flight hours a year.

Most of the KPAAF's strength lies in its air defenses. It has a range of advanced surface-to-air missiles, and the area around Pyongyang has "one of the most dense concentrations" of anti-aircraft artillery in the world, the DIA report said.

Russia's need for North Korean ammunition, North Korea's need for new aircraft, and the aviation capabilities on display during Kim's trip all seem to suggest a looming trade, but making such an exchange would violate sanctions prohibiting arms transfers to Pyongyang, which Putin has said Russia would not do.

'But, of course, we will look for opportunities to develop Russian-North Korean relations', the Russian leader added.

While North Korea would no doubt like to have modern aircraft, there are also indications that its satellite, missile, and nuclear-weapons programs are higher priorities.

Pyongyang has said that having a reconnaissance satellite is 'indispensable' to its security and has promised to launch one in October after two failed launches earlier this year. North Korea is also pursuing more advanced missile capabilities, including hypersonic weapons, and seeking to increase its stockpile of miniaturized nuclear warheads that it can arm its missiles with".