White House memo warns shutdown could cost US $15 billion weekly

President Donald Trump’s economic team has issued a stark warning about the consequences of a prolonged government shutdown, with a White House memo obtained by POLITICO projecting that the U.S. could lose $15 billion in gross domestic product (GDP) for every week the standoff continues.

According to the four-page document prepared by the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), a month-long shutdown could push an additional 43,000 Americans into unemployment. This estimate does not include the 1.9 million federal civilian employees who are already either furloughed or working without pay, about 80 per cent of whom live in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area.

The memo, which White House aides say will be circulated to Republicans in Congress, is intended to help shape the party’s messaging strategy as the administration seeks to place the blame for the shutdown squarely on Democrats. The deadlock centres on funding for health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act — subsidies the Trump administration has inaccurately claimed would benefit undocumented immigrants.

“The very real economic consequences of a prolonged government shutdown are entirely on Senate Democrats who are holding the federal government, economy, and country hostage to give illegal immigrants free health care,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement.

The warning comes at a politically sensitive moment. Polling indicates that while voters are assigning more responsibility for the shutdown to Republicans, significant numbers also hold both parties accountable. Meanwhile, the White House is working to unify Republican messaging across all levels of government to deflect mounting criticism.

Economic anxiety is being compounded by other pressures. The payroll services company ADP reported on Wednesday that the U.S. lost 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, highlighting growing concern over the broader impact of the president’s tariff policies.

The CEA memo further warns that a monthlong shutdown could sap $30 billion from consumer spending — half from lost income to federal workers, and the rest from ripple effects across other sectors. Drawing on analysis from Goldman Sachs, Fiserv, and the Federal Reserve, the report concludes that the shutdown could have “wide-ranging economic effects that reduce American prospects through lower growth, higher unemployment, as well as disruptions to social security, air travel, and nutritional support to women with infant children.”

The memo outlines several specific consequences should the shutdown drag on. Funding for the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) nutrition program will run out in October, while Social Security and Medicare recipients may face significantly longer wait times for customer service. Early childhood education initiatives, such as Head Start programs that are due for annual review, would not receive federal funds.

Transportation infrastructure would also be affected. While Transportation Security Administration officers and air traffic controllers are required to continue working without pay, the memo notes that absenteeism during previous shutdowns rose from 3 per cent to 10 per cent, raising the risk of widespread delays at airports across the country.

“The longer the shutdown lasts, the more intense these effects will become,” the CEA memo warns, underscoring the mounting costs of political stalemate in Washington.

By Tamilla Hasanova