Why Trump backed Delcy Rodríguez: Inside CIA’s post-Maduro assessment Analysis by WSJ

A classified US intelligence assessment concluded that senior figures from Nicolás Maduro’s inner circle, including Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, would be best placed to lead a temporary government in Caracas and preserve near-term stability if Maduro were to lose power, people familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal.

The CIA analysis was briefed to President Trump in recent weeks and circulated among a small group of senior administration officials. It became an important factor in Trump’s decision to favour Rodríguez over opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado as a potential successor.

Senior Trump administration officials commissioned the assessment as part of internal discussions about “day-after” scenarios for Venezuela. It did not advocate removing Maduro or outline how he might be forced from office, but instead evaluated the internal political and security landscape if such a scenario were to occur.

According to people familiar with the report, the CIA concluded that continuity and short-term stability would depend on the cooperation of the armed forces and other regime elites, a judgment that aligned with Trump’s long-standing views dating back to his first term.

The intelligence report cited Rodríguez and two other senior regime figures as possible interim leaders capable of keeping order. While the assessment did not name the other two, Venezuela’s most powerful hard-line figures include Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino, who control the police and military.

Former US and Venezuelan officials have warned that both men could obstruct any transition and are unlikely to cooperate with Washington, as they face US criminal charges similar to those brought against Maduro.

The report also concluded that opposition figures would face significant obstacles to governing. Edmundo González, widely viewed as the winner of the disputed 2024 election, and Machado were assessed as struggling to establish legitimacy in the face of resistance from pro-regime security services, drug-trafficking networks and entrenched political rivals. Regional analysts have long cautioned that a sudden power vacuum in Venezuela could empower armed factions, criminal groups and rival politicians, leading to a broader security crisis.

Trump’s decision not to back the opposition followed the US military operation last week that captured Maduro and transferred him to New York, where he appeared in federal court on narco-terrorism charges and pleaded not guilty. The CIA had closely tracked Maduro’s movements in the months leading up to the operation, cultivating a source inside his inner circle and using additional surveillance assets, which enabled US special forces to carry out the raid, according to people familiar with the operation.

Following Maduro’s removal, the Trump administration signalled a willingness to work with Rodríguez, whom US officials describe as a pragmatic political operator. After initially adopting a defiant tone, Rodríguez publicly indicated her readiness to engage with Washington and held talks with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Rubio later said the US would seek to pressure her by enforcing a military “quarantine” to intercept sanctioned Venezuelan oil shipments, though Trump himself emphasised US control over access to Venezuela’s oil and other strategic assets.

The shift toward Rodríguez and away from Machado surprised opposition allies in Washington and Caracas. Trump said Machado lacked sufficient support and respect inside Venezuela to lead a democratic transition, a stark contrast to earlier public praise from Trump and his allies, who had previously promoted her movement as the most legitimate alternative to Maduro. Privately, however, Trump has remained sceptical of Venezuela’s opposition since his first term, concluding it overpromised and underperformed after US sanctions and diplomatic pressure failed to fracture the regime or trigger a military uprising.

Administration officials say the current approach reflects a more pragmatic assessment of Venezuela’s power dynamics, even as critics argue that relying on regime insiders risks entrenching elements of the existing system. The White House has declined to comment directly on the intelligence assessment but said the administration is pursuing what it sees as realistic options to stabilise Venezuela and align it more closely with US interests.

By Tamilla Hasanova