Why US approved Greek F-35 and Turkish F-16 sales simultaneously

In a move with far-reaching implications for the future of airpower in NATO’s southern flank, the State Department simultaneously approved the sale of fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth jets to Greece and modernized F-16 Vipers fighters to Türkiye.

The State Department announced the approvals with back-to-back press releases on Jan. 26. They came mere days after Türkiye’s parliament ratified Sweden’s long-delayed NATO membership bid following a delay of almost two years. Congress had previously objected to supplying Türkiye with any new F-16s so long as Ankara blocked Sweden’s admission, Forbes reports.

Türkiye initially requested 40 brand-new Block 70 F-16s and 79 modernization kits in October 2021. Greece sent an official request for 20 F-35s in June 2022.

It seems evident in retrospect that the US was reluctant to approve Greece’s landmark F-35 acquisition until it could first remove obstacles to Türkiye’s F-16 procurement. Washington likely did so to avoid the appearance of favoritism between the two NATO members and to avoid altering the balance of airpower over the Aegean Sea in Greece’s favor.

Asked if this was the case, a State Department official told me, “I’d say the considerations were pretty straightforward: it’s all about enhancing the capability of NATO allies and interoperability with US forces.”

In Türkiye’s case, according to the official, keeping the second largest F-16 fleet in the alliance up-to-date enhances NATO’s “deterrence and defense posture.” Furthermore, acquiring the 79 modernization kits will enable Ankara to upgrade its older model F-16s to the ultra-modern Block 70 standard.

“These new and refurbished aircraft will provide Türkiye with a fleet of modernized multi-role combat aircraft to enable it to provide for the defense of its airspace,” the official said.

“Meanwhile, the sale of F-35 aircraft to Greece will provide a significant increase in capability as well as interoperability with NATO forces,” the official added. “This sale enhances the Hellenic Air Force’s capability to provide for the defense of its airspace, contribute to NATO missions to preserve regional security and defend NATO Allies, and maintain interoperability with US and NATO forces.”

Suleyman Ozeren, a professorial lecturer at the American University and senior fellow at the Orion Policy Institute, believes the decision to approve both these sales together reflects “two critical perspectives.”

“First, the Biden administration seeks to create a balance in the region by providing F-35s to Greece while supplying F-16s to Türkiye,” Ozeren told me. “Evidently, Greece will have the upper hand in this deal.”

“Second, this decision also reflects the skepticism between the US and Türkiye, which has been a persistent problem since Ankara decided to purchase Russian S-400 missile defense systems,” he said.

Türkiye’s contentious purchase of these strategic Russian air defense systems resulted in its exclusion from the F-35 program and ban on buying aircraft. Ankara had initially intended to buy up to 100 F-35As to modernize its air force.

Ultimately, Ozeren believes possessing the world’s most advanced fifth-generation aircraft represents a “diplomatic victory” for Greece.

He also believes the timing of the decision “speaks volumes” since it indicates both “a preference for Greece over Türkiye within the US Congress” and reflects “strained” US-Türkiye relations.

“Nevertheless, this decision extends beyond only balancing airpower in the Aegean,” he said. “It suggests that the US seeks assurance from Türkiye, a crucial member of the NATO alliance.”

George Tzogopoulos, a senior fellow at the Centre International de Formation Européenne, a French policy research institute, believes the decision seems reasonable from a “political prism.”

“Both Greece and Türkiye are NATO allies, but the autonomous character of Turkish foreign policy in recent years has led the American administration to employ different tactics in serving its interests by somewhat pleasing both,” he told me. “Washington is working hard to limit Ankara’s opening toward the East, which is an ongoing process and does not stop with the current sales.”

In doing so, Tzogopoulos believes Washington is possibly planning to provide Athens with a “qualitative military edge” while avoiding “irreversibly alienating” Ankara.

Interestingly, less than a week after the two deals were approved, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland told Turkish media on January 29, “If we could get through this S-400 issue, which we would like to do, the US would be delighted to welcome Türkiye back into the F-35 family.”

“The potential sale of the F-35 to Türkiye cannot be excluded,” Tzogopoulos said. “It depends on the future course of the Turkish-American bargain that will be also shaped by the result of the US presidential election.”

Tzogopoulos believes this Turkish-American bargainer has two winners and one loser. The winners are the US and Türkiye, with the former securing another lucrative arms sale and the latter receiving the jets it sought. On the other hand, NATO is a clear loser since the “message that is being sent to other members” is that autonomy in foreign policy, in this case Türkiye, “could be an option for states without serious repercussions.”

And while approving Sweden’s NATO assessing was a significant factor in opening the door for the F-16 sale, Tzogopoulos noted “it’s not clear where the limits of the Turkish-American bargain could be placed.

“Today it is the approval of Sweden and tomorrow it might be another theme on the agenda of conversations,” he said. “Turkish bargaining tactics are producing results and this is what should cause some concern.”

The analyst noted that while Greek-Turkish relations are stable at present, history has repeatedly shown such stability does not last long.

“In order to compare airpower balance in the Aegean we need specific numbers and timeframes,” he said. “It is not clear, for example, how many F-35 fighters Greece could receive and when.”

“The US supports the ongoing detente in Greek-Turkish relations but should be prepared for new rounds of tensions sooner or later,” he added.

“What matters more for the US is not the airpower balance in the Aegean itself but the result of its effort to prevent a situation where Türkiye could be lost.”

Consequently, the risk for Türkiye of Greece at some point achieving a qualitative military edge over Türkiye in the air over the Aegean could be part of “future Turkish-American conversations.”

Tzogopoulos pointed to Nuland’s statement underlining how Türkiye could also acquire F-35s if it resolves the S-400 impasse.

“So the bargain goes on,” he said.