Will Trump’s presidency lead to a split between Moscow and Beijing?

Foreign Affairs has published an article exploring the complex geopolitical dynamics between the United States, Russia, and China, focusing on Donald Trump’s proposed approach to "un-unite" the two powers. 

In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Trump boasted about his ability to divide Russia and China, a prospect that carries significant ramifications for global stability. His plan, though unclear, seems to echo past U.S. strategies, such as the détente between the U.S. and China in the 1970s, which aimed to exploit the Sino-Soviet split. Trump’s rhetoric and his national security team’s views suggest that a key priority for his administration would be weakening the Chinese-Russian partnership.

However, as the article outlines, this strategy faces numerous challenges. For Russia, the transition from the Biden administration to Trump’s potential leadership presents an uncertain period, particularly regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine. Russia's nuclear doctrine has become more aggressive, and the Kremlin is cautious about escalating tensions with the West before Trump takes office. Putin is optimistic that Trump may reduce Western support for Ukraine, which could result in a favourable negotiation for Russia, though this remains speculative.

For China, the scenario is more concerning. Under Biden, U.S.-China relations have been marked by a degree of stability, but Trump’s return to power could reignite tensions, especially given his past hardline stance on China, including a trade war and military posturing in the Indo-Pacific. The appointment of hawkish figures in Trump’s national security team, particularly those critical of China, further fuels Beijing’s anxieties. Moreover, Xi Jinping’s focus on consolidating power within China and avoiding unnecessary conflict may make a harder confrontation with the U.S. inevitable under Trump.

The article argues that, despite Trump’s claims, the likelihood of a successful U.S. strategy to drive a wedge between Russia and China is low. Both countries have grown economically intertwined, with Russia heavily dependent on China, particularly for trade. This dependence, combined with the long-term political ambitions of both Putin and Xi, suggests that their alliance is likely to endure, regardless of Trump’s actions.

In conclusion, while Trump’s approach may offer temporary shifts in the U.S. relationship with Russia and China, the deepening strategic and economic ties between Moscow and Beijing make it unlikely that the two countries will split in any meaningful way. Both autocrats view Washington’s global influence with distrust, and their partnership is expected to remain resilient, driven by shared goals in an emerging multipolar world.