WP: European intelligence uncovers Russia’s strategy to delay peace process

The European intelligence services have obtained a document outlining Russia's maximalist demands and rigid negotiating position regarding a potential end to the war against Ukraine. The document, prepared for the Kremlin in February by a Moscow-based think tank closely linked to the FSB, details strategies for undermining the US position and delaying any peace process.

According to The Washington Post, which reviewed the document, it underscores the difficulties facing US President Donald Trump in securing a peace deal now that Kyiv has endorsed Washington's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, per Caliber.Az.

The report also states that Moscow has given no indication it would agree to such a ceasefire, warning that Russia "still has many ways in which it can delay agreement on even a temporary pause in hostilities."

The document was reportedly drafted a week before a meeting between US and Russian delegations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on February 18. It sets out a strategy to weaken Washington’s negotiating position by exploiting divisions between the Trump administration and other countries while continuing efforts to dismantle Ukrainian statehood.

A key element of the document is its rejection of Trump’s earlier plan for a peace agreement within 100 days, calling it "impossible to realise." It explicitly states that "a peaceful solution to the Ukraine crisis cannot happen before 2026."

The document dismisses any notion of deploying Western peacekeepers to Ukraine, an idea proposed by some European leaders. Moreover, it insists on Russia’s "recognition of sovereignty" over the Ukrainian territories it has occupied. In addition, the document outlines a plan for the further division of Ukraine, advocating for a "buffer zone" in the northeast along the Russian border with the Bryansk and Belgorod regions and a "demilitarized zone" in the south, potentially affecting the Odesa region.

Another key demand in the document is the "complete dismantling" of Ukraine’s current government. The report identifies ways in which Moscow could enhance its bargaining power by exacerbating tensions between the US, China, and the European Union. It also suggests leveraging access to mineral resources, including rare earth metals allegedly located in occupied Ukrainian territories, as a means of enticing Washington into negotiations.

The Washington Post notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin echoed similar points in a February 24 interview, stating that Moscow might invite US companies to develop "Russian" mineral deposits, including those in occupied Ukrainian territories. The publication described this as "an attempt to undermine a proposed agreement on the development of mineral resources between Ukraine and the United States."

One of the document’s initial recommendations is the normalization of diplomatic relations between Washington and Moscow, including the restoration of full diplomatic staff at embassies and the appointment of Alexander Darchiev as Russia’s ambassador to the US.

Additionally, the document proposes that Russia agree not to deploy its Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missiles in Belarus in exchange for a US commitment not to deploy new missile systems in Europe. It also suggests halting Russian arms supplies to countries deemed "unfriendly" to the US, while expecting Washington to cease providing arms to Ukraine. However, the document acknowledges that "stopping Russian arms deliveries to Moscow's allies would be difficult to implement."

The Kremlin’s position, as outlined in the document, rejects any political concessions by Kyiv, including Ukraine’s renunciation of NATO membership or the requirement to hold elections that would allow pro-Russian parties to participate.

Furthermore, it dismisses efforts to entice Russia into a peace deal by partially lifting Western sanctions, with Moscow analysts arguing that "the importance of the sanctions factor is clearly exaggerated."

By Tamilla Hasanova