ISW: Wagner’s head may use media clout to run for Russian presidency

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may be using his influence in Russia’s mainstream media landscape to present himself as a contender in Russia’s 2024 presidential elections.

Prigozhin’s own Federal News Agency published an interview that Prigozhin conducted with Russian journalists from Russia Today, RIA Novosti and Federal News Agency on March 14, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

This interview was noteworthy for its unique format--during the interview, Prigozhin seemed to mimic the way that Russian President Vladimir Putin films his choreographed public meetings, either to mock Putin quietly or to suggest subtly that Prigozhin could become Russian president like Putin.

Wagner’s financier also used this interview to reiterate his previous arguments about the need to instil hardline ideology in Russian fighters and insinuate that the Russian Ministry of Defence is deliberately depriving the Wagner Group of artillery ammunition.

Prigozhin may seek to parody Putin’s cinematography style as part of a larger trolling campaign to attack the Kremlin or draw tacit parallels between Prigozhin and the office of the Russian presidency.

He made a sarcastic announcement on March 11 that he will run for the Ukrainian presidency in 2024 — a statement that a prominent Kremlin-linked Russian scholar argued implicitly promoted a narrative that Prigozhin would run in Russia’s presidential elections which are also scheduled for 2024. He directly attacked Putin’s presidential administration on January 18 and insinuated that some officials working there are traitors who want Russia to lose the war in Ukraine — one of Prigozhin’s boldest attacks against the Kremlin to date. The para-military company’s head also denied the Kremlin’s claims that Russia is fighting NATO in Ukraine and questioned whether there are actually Nazis in Ukraine as the Kremlin — and specifically Putin — constantly claims.

Prigozhin’s recent behaviour — regardless of its intent — is advancing a narrative among Russian society that he has larger political aspirations in Russia.

Key Takeaways
•    Wagner Group forces have likely taken the AZOM industrial complex in northern Bakhmut and continue to make gains within the city.
•    Russian and Ukrainian sources speculated that Lieutenant General Sergei Kuzmenko will replace Colonel General Rustam Muradov as Eastern Military District (EMD) commander.
•    Wagner Group Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may be using his influence in Russia’s mainstream media landscape to present himself as a potential contender in Russia’s 2024 presidential elections.
•    High-ranking Russian officials continue to set domestic conditions for a protracted war.
•    The cost of Russia’s war in Ukraine will likely consume a substantial portion of the Russian Federal Budget.
•    Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
•    Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.
•    Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted localized ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast.
•    Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree removing the upper age limit for Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) servicemen serving in occupied Ukraine until January 1, 2026.
•    Russian occupation officials continue efforts to expand Russia’s bureaucratic and administrative control of occupied areas of Ukraine.
•    The Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed on March 28 Belarus’ intent to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus as Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on March 25.