Russia increasing defence spending to record level To support a long war effort in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law significantly increasing Russian federal expenditures in 2024, reportedly including a record level of defence spending.

Putin signed the law on the 2024 federal budget and the planned budgets for 2025 and 2026 on November 27, Caliber.Az reports citing the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The report says that the 2024 federal budget accounts for 36.66 trillion rubles ($412.5 billion) in state expenses and a budget deficit of 1.6 trillion rubles ($9.5 billion). The Russian Finance Ministry estimated in October 2023 that 2023 budget expenditures amounted to 32.5 trillion rubles ($365.7 billion), suggesting that the 2024 budget will account for a roughly 13 per cent increase in overall expenditures.

Russian business journalists Farida Rustamova and Maksim Tovkalyo stated on November 15 that Russian authorities plan to spend 14 trillion rubles ($157.5 billion) on defence and law enforcement, representing 39 per cent of all federal government spending. Reuters reported on October 2 that the 2024 budget would allocate 10.78 trillion rubles ($121.3 billion) to national defence, representing 29.4 per cent of the national budget.

The Russian Finance Ministry reportedly allocated 6.41 trillion rubles ($72.1 billion) to defence in 2023, although this number is likely higher given that a substantial portion of the Russian federal budget is still classified. The roughly third or more of the federal budget going to defence spending, if true, will represent a record level of Russian defence spending.

The federal budget does not amount to the entirety of Russian spending on defence, however, as the Kremlin has relied on regional budgets and private business entities to augment funding for the ongoing war effort.

The draft budgets for 2025 and 2026 have roughly just as large expenditures as the 2024 budget, 34.38 trillion rubles ($387.9 billion) and 35.59 trillion rubles ($400.4 billion) respectively, and suggests that the Kremlin is planning to allocate large portions of its expenditures to support a long war effort in Ukraine.

 Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin continues to focus heavily on setting informational conditions for the upcoming 2024 Russian presidential elections and will likely formally commence Putin’s “campaign” on December 14. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Andriy Yusov stated on November 28 that unspecified actors poisoned GUR Head Kyrylo Budanov’s wife Marianna Budanova.
• A Russian insider source claimed on November 28 that Russian authorities detained at least three additional Moscow-based Federal Security Service (FSB) employees in connection with a 5-billion-ruble ($55.6 million) bribery case.
• Iranian Deputy Defence Minister Brigadier General Mehdi Farhi announced on November 28 that Russia and Iran finalized the purchase of Russian aircraft.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Kupyansk and Avdiivka.