Second Trump term would be far more autocratic than first - according to himself
An analysis by The Guardian
WORLD 05 December 2023 - 22:58
An article by the Guardian discusses concerns about the potential for Donald Trump's return to the US presidency as polls show him far ahead of his Republican colleagues, as well as Democratic rival Joe Biden. It highlights the differences in approach between Trump and other autocratic leaders, who carefully hid their authoritarian plans in contrast to the former US president who openly discloses his intentions, including a detailed scheme to replace civil servants with political cronies and bring the justice department under political control. Caliber.Az reprints this article.
"The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. Plenty of observers seem to think that’s all one needs to know as one beholds Donald Trump’s seemingly inevitable Republican nomination for president and possible second term. They assume that because it wasn’t fascism the first time, it cannot be fascism the second time; Trump is expected once more to be the bumbling, blustering buffoon, supervised by adults in the room.
This relaxed view ignores that, with today’s pioneers of autocracy, things tend to only get really bad when they enter office the second time. The difference with Trump is not that he would leave democracy intact; the difference is that figures like the far-right Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, or Polish strongman Jarosław Kaczyński carefully hid their authoritarian plans. Trump, by contrast, is broadcasting everything in advance – and, if elected, will claim that he has a mandate to exact retribution and occupy the White House permanently.
One of the great illusions of the 1990s was not, contrary to conventional wisdom, the belief that history had ended. Rather, it was the notion that democracies make mistakes but that their leaders are uniquely capable of correcting and learning from them. By contrast, the thinking went, autocrats cannot face up to problems; dictatorships are destined to end like the Soviet Union ended in 1991.
Today, we should know better. Whether the likes of Orbán and Kaczyński always wanted to be autocrats is beside the point. The fact is that they, just like Trump, considered it deeply unfair that they had suffered election defeat [duly attributed to various enemies, from judges to hostile media outlets]. When they came back to power, they had learned one thing for sure: not to waste political capital on culture wars, but to capture state institutions, ideally on day one, with the judiciary and the state bureaucracy as primary targets. For once you control the judges, you can go after the journalists, the teachers and the academics, and forever wage culture war to your heart’s content.
Whether Trump personally has learned anything we can debate. But those around him evidently have. In 2025, they will not permit the 'deep state' to frustrate the leader again; as a number of astute analysts have pointed out, there is a detailed scheme to replace perhaps up to 50,000 civil servants with political cronies, and bring the justice department under political control.
It is typical for authoritarian populists to hijack the bureaucracy in broad daylight, advancing the argument that only they represent what populists call 'the real people' [Trump’s very words to his supporters on January 6]. After all, who is the state there for? The people, of course. Hence, when populists take over the state, they claim it’s really the people themselves rightfully taking possession of what is theirs. Recall Trump’s inaugural address, when he claimed that 'we are transferring power from Washington and giving it back to you, the people'. The people never got it back, of course, because of the supposed 'deep state'; this time must be different.
The fact that the Heritage Foundation, a supposedly mainstream, sort-of-Reaganite conservative thinktank, has taken the lead in working out a plan to destroy the US administrative state is symptomatic of the fact that plenty of Republicans outside the immediate Maga cult have not only made their peace with an election denier and insurrection promoter but would appear to be onboard with threats Trump has spelled out in speech after speech: on Veterans Day, he promised to 'root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, lie, steal, and cheat on elections, and will do anything possible, whether legally or illegally, to destroy America, and the American dream'.
Other aspiring autocrats were probably also seething with resentment – but they carefully camouflaged their intentions as they prepared the path back to office. In 2010, Orbán could wait for power to fall into his lap, in light of the Hungarian center-left’s disastrous economic record and corruption scandals [which pale in comparison with what Orbán would end up doing in his kleptocratic system]; he never announced that he sought to replace independent judges, destroy media pluralism and pass a new constitution.
Trump is not hiding anything; nor does a figure like the Heritage president, who considers Hungary 'not just a model for conservative statecraft, but the model'. Trump threatens that 'either the deep state destroys America or we destroy the deep state'. Judges, journalists, anyone who didn’t do his bidding to steal the 2020 election, anyone in the Biden administration [communists!], anyone in foundations and universities declared by the Trump acolyte JD Vance to be 'cancers on American society' – all should realize that he means it, and that self-styled center-right figures are not disavowing him.
If Trump wins, he will claim that 'the people' – for only his voters are the 'real people' – democratically decided in favor of revenge and destruction".
Caliber.Az
1
|
Phantom arms deal: How false claims aim to derail Baku-Tehran diplomacy Azerbaijan embraces "forewarned is forearmed" principle
25 July 2024 - 15:34
|
2
|
Could France’s anti-NATO rhetoric trigger domestic turmoil? Leftist Mélenchon's stance sparks historical echoes
24 July 2024 - 10:24
|
3
|
Azerbaijan: The new powerhouse of aluminium production amid global market strain "Green" era's requirement
25 July 2024 - 17:05
|
4
|
Brussels' bait and Yerevan's rush to swallow it The visa-free temptation
24 July 2024 - 09:00
|
5
|
West-backed Armenia likely to spark conflict with Azerbaijan rather than seek peace Caliber.Az reveals expert prognoses
25 July 2024 - 11:10
|
Japan addressing increasing incidents of customer harassment
Service culture under strain27 July 2024 - 03:05
Swiss spots struggle with social media-driven visitor impact
Tourism vs. nature27 July 2024 - 01:03
German chancellor tackles EU expansion, internal reform challenges
Path forward26 July 2024 - 23:03
Italian newspaper explores Azerbaijan's ancient Albanian churches
26 July 2024 - 21:08
Azerbaijani prosecutor general declares ties with Türkiye as strategic partnership
PHOTO26 July 2024 - 20:55
Azerbaijan, Italy strengthening military relations
PHOTO26 July 2024 - 20:42
China demands withdrawal of US nuclear weapons from Europe
26 July 2024 - 20:29
Pentagon concedes to spreading anti-Sinovac propaganda in Philippines
26 July 2024 - 20:16
COP29 presidency team hosts events to tackle key climate agenda issues
26 July 2024 - 20:03
Israel targets Türkiye’s TRT Haber team covering Al-Aqsa mosque incident
26 July 2024 - 19:51
COP20 president: Azerbaijan should lead with ambition at COP29
26 July 2024 - 19:38
Turkish defence minister, Azerbaijani ambassador discuss strengthening military ties
26 July 2024 - 19:25
FBI seeking to interview Trump as part of assassination attempt investigation
26 July 2024 - 19:12
US presidential candidate cites potential path to victory with Biden out of race
26 July 2024 - 18:58
Turkish MP confirms plans for official Azerbaijani school in Istanbul
26 July 2024 - 18:44
US vice president’s call for peace in Gaza sparks controversy with Israel
26 July 2024 - 18:30
FM: Italy to appoint ambassador to Syria after 10 years
26 July 2024 - 18:17
Head of Georgian Parliament blames opposition for compromising national safety
Aid to Ukraine at Georgia’s expense26 July 2024 - 18:03
South Caucasus on edge: West fuels Armenia's war drums
Yerevan clings to deceitful rhetoric26 July 2024 - 18:02
Media: Iran arms Hezbollah with advanced weapons
26 July 2024 - 17:49
Bolsonaro intends to run for Brazilian presidency in 2026, citing confidence in winning
26 July 2024 - 17:36
Armenian PM visits modernised Margara checkpoint on Turkish border
VIDEO26 July 2024 - 17:22
Boeing considers to convert its top fighter into an electronic warfare jet
Caliber.Az on YouTube26 July 2024 - 17:17
Belarus ready to expand cooperation with North Korea
26 July 2024 - 17:09
EU appoints new special representative for South Caucasus
26 July 2024 - 17:01
Azerbaijani-Chinese partnership defies "first among equals" attitudes
Rising above geopolitical cynicism26 July 2024 - 16:55
Armenia's militarization: A "peace agenda" with an armed approach
Yerevan must revisit recent historical lessons26 July 2024 - 16:42
Azerbaijan approves cooperation pacts with Türkiye, Kazakhstan
26 July 2024 - 16:33
Media: US informs Iran of readiness to return to nuclear deal
26 July 2024 - 16:29
Turkish forces take down PKK terrorists in coordinated Iraq and Syria raids
VIDEO26 July 2024 - 16:16
Israeli air strikes hit Hezbollah outposts in response to rocket fire
26 July 2024 - 16:03
Kremlin spox: EU ridicules Orban over Moscow visit
26 July 2024 - 15:51
Armenian parliamentary delegation visits Georgia to strengthen bilateral ties
26 July 2024 - 15:38
Washington talks peace while arming Yerevan
26 July 2024 - 15:38
Travellers from 13 nations explore rebuilding of Karabakh, East Zangazur
PHOTO26 July 2024 - 15:25
European Commission transfers €1.5 billion from frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine's defence
26 July 2024 - 15:25
Trump says US to destroy Iran in case of his assassination
26 July 2024 - 15:12
Kremlin declares dialogue with West futile amid hostility toward Russia
26 July 2024 - 14:59
Somalia, Azerbaijan share common positions on many international forums
Minister’s statement26 July 2024 - 14:46
Azerbaijan promoting tourism potential in India
PHOTO26 July 2024 - 14:33