Armenian PM himself must close Pandora’s box Foreign experts’ views on Caliber.Az

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement about the desire to hold a referendum on changing the constitution was actively discussed in Armenian society. Azerbaijan also paid attention to this statement.

However, some questions arise. Won’t Pashinyan back out? Won’t he retract his own words? Moreover, he is subject to powerful pressure both within the country (the revanchist part of society and politicians) and outside (France and the diaspora).

Even if a referendum on changing the constitution is held, will the Armenian society abandon territorial claims against Azerbaijan? This can be a good opportunity for the speedy completion of the peace process.

Foreign experts expressed their views to Caliber.Az.

Georgian specialist in international relations, political analyst Irakli Gogava said that Pashinyan logically put forward the idea of changing the preamble to the Armenian constitution, and if this is not done, then it turns out that Armenia’s national goal is territorial claims to Azerbaijan.

“Such a situation will lead to a new war sooner or later. It is unknown who will govern Armenia in the future and how this point in the Armenian constitution will be used. A peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia is impossible without eliminating this legal norm from the constitution. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly stated this,” he noted.

“Many people in Armenia may be sensitive to such a step, but for a peaceful future they are obliged to make such a decision. I think the majority of Armenian society understands this, and Pashinyan is moving in this direction. The principle of territorial integrity must not be questioned proceeding from the recent history. Pandora’s box must be closed,” Gogava added.

The political analyst said that the South Caucasus should look for those models of cooperation that will lead to lasting and long-term peace. For this purpose, it is necessary to be guided by several principles.

He noted that among these principles are a zero threat from the South Caucasus, resolution of all conflicts in the region, respect and balance of economic interests of all centres of power, restoration of all routes and development of a moderate integration economic model - the “South Caucasus Troika” (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia). This approach is not futurology, but a natural and reasonable way for the development of our region.

“I think Pashinyan will seek a referendum to remove the barrier to a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, if he is not prevented by the gross interference of the West. From the point of view of political technologies, it is an absolutely clear step to ask people to share responsibility for an important decision. We all urgently need the implementation of the policy of “zero problems with neighbours,” Gogava added.

In turn, while speaking about the constitutional referendum, head of the A+Analytics research centre, Kazakh political analyst Farhad Kasenov called for taking into account several aspects.

“Pashinyan, being the leader of Armenia for quite a long period, experienced several periods of his political career, from a popular favorite and leader of the “Velvet Revolution”, to a figure who was personally responsible for the defeat in the war,” he said.

Kasenov noted that this man learned to feel and use the mood of his audience, and on the other hand, to understand that in the end, the political game that was started long ago by others will have to be ended by him.

“It is important for Pashinyan to change the image of a fatal loser to a person who brought peace to the people of Armenia, making this country an important element of the entire South Caucasus,” he said.

Kasenov added that the obvious benefits of peaceful coexistence for a rational leader are a very tempting prospect, given the financial and economic opportunities opening up for Armenia after the conclusion of the peace treaty, especially in a situation when there is nothing to lose as Azerbaijan has been able to regain previously occupied territories over the past three years.

“Some questions arise. Is Pashinyan ready to take advantage of the historic chance? Can he take a step forward by curbing the supporters of immediate revenge,” Kasenov noted.

He added that it is obvious that the Armenian people are reviewing their life after more than thirty years that have passed under the banner of territorial expansion, which is illegitimate upon international law.

“The rejection of such claims and an ideological turn in favour of the ideas of internal self-development in the current conditions have enormous positive potential. However, it is hampered by mass consciousness and using of “sensitive moments” of an ethnic nature by short-sighted local politicians,” he said.

“Are both the Armenian leadership and the entire society ready for the coming changes? Will they be able to resolve the long-term problems? This will be obvious soon,” he said.