Israel vs. Hezbollah: How will the confrontation end? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

On March 16, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) announced the beginning of a new phase of active ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Media reports indicate that the situation is currently marked by intense ground fighting and an expansion of the operation. Fierce clashes are taking place in the border areas. Reports note the elimination of dozens of militants and the discovery of large weapons caches. Since the beginning of March, Israeli forces have struck over 2,000 targets on Lebanese territory.

In addition to ground operations, Israel is conducting massive airstrikes on Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the southern suburbs of Beirut and the Bekaa Valley. According to the UN and local authorities, more than 1.2 million people in Lebanon have been internally displaced. Since the beginning of March 2026, the death toll in Lebanon has exceeded 900.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that the operation will continue until the threat to residents of northern Israel is eliminated and Hezbollah fighters are pushed back beyond the Litani River.

So, what are the objectives and scale of Israel’s ground operation in Lebanon? Is there, so to speak, a “minimum” and “maximum” plan? And what does its possible outcome look like from today’s perspective?

Caliber.Az asked leading regional experts to answer these questions.

Israeli military expert and author of the military-analytical YouTube channel, Sergey Auslender, stated that, as he understands it, they have, as has been correctly stated, a “minimum” and a “maximum” plan for Lebanon.

“Just like with Iran, actually. The minimum plan is to weaken Hezbollah’s military capabilities as much as possible, inflict even heavier losses on them, and push them beyond the range of direct fire from anti-tank missiles. Of course, you can’t eliminate all long-range missiles, but the goal is to make sure they can’t fire anti-tank weapons. This is very dangerous weaponry with almost no countermeasures. That can be achieved, but it will require expanding the buffer zone,” Auslender explained.

The maximum plan, he says, is the usual one — the elimination of Hezbollah.

“But this is not possible at the moment, because Hezbollah is an integral part of Lebanon’s Shia community. And the Shia community in Lebanon makes up about 25% of the population. We cannot—and of course do not intend to—eliminate the entire Shia community. But as long as Lebanon has a Shia community, Hezbollah will exist. There’s nothing you can do about that.

So, the outcome will depend on the success of the objectives and on the mood of the Americans, who could at any moment initiate some negotiations. But so far, nothing seems to indicate that. Moreover, if the Iranians eventually make a deal with the Americans, Israel would have to receive some kind of compensation. And that compensation could very well be Hezbollah, essentially ‘handed over to be dealt with,’” Auslender suggested.

As noted by Ihor Semyvolos, Executive Director of the Middle East Studies Centre (Kyiv), when discussing Israel’s military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon, it is indeed useful to distinguish between a minimum and a maximum plan.

“The minimum plan is to push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River. This is the officially declared goal, and it aligns with UN Security Council Resolution 1701 from 2006, which Hezbollah has never fully implemented. It involves destroying weapons caches and tunnel infrastructure in the border zone, and allowing residents of northern Israel, who were evacuated back in October 2023, to return. This is a realistic and achievable objective.

As for the maximum plan, the situation is less optimistic. Goals include the complete disarmament of Hezbollah or a significant degradation of its capabilities to the point where the organisation no longer holds the status of a regional military force. It could also involve a shift in the political balance within Lebanon itself, where the Lebanese state would finally gain control over the south of the country. This is far more ambitious and much more difficult to achieve,” the researcher said.

According to him, the realistic scenario currently unfolding is the expansion of the buffer zone, where Hezbollah is pushed back but does not disappear.

“The organisation has deep roots in Lebanon’s Shia community, and it is impossible to eliminate it as a political force through airstrikes and ground operations—2006 proved that.

Among the risks currently being discussed is that the Lebanese state could collapse entirely under the pressure of 1.2 million displaced people, leaving Israel in the role of an occupying power with no way out,” Semyvolos said.

Israeli military expert David Handelman, for his part, stated that at this stage, the objective of the ground operation in Lebanon is to seize territory within the range of anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) systems and to control the heights from which Hezbollah can observe and fire on Israeli territory, as well as to destroy villages along the contact line.

“Additionally, in order to isolate the combat zone, bridges across the Litani River are being destroyed. At the same time, airstrikes are being carried out in southern Lebanon, Beirut, and other areas against Hezbollah headquarters, launch sites, and weapons caches,” Handelman concluded.