Analyst: Europe must adopt China-style resilience to survive global fragmentation

In a commentary published in The Guardian, policy analyst Mark Leonard argues that Europe must fundamentally rethink its approach to global politics and economics, suggesting it should adopt elements of China’s strategy to survive what he describes as an emerging “age of un-order”.

Leonard writes that the latest escalation involving the United States, Israel and Iran has intensified global instability, driving up energy prices and exposing Europe’s vulnerability to external shocks.

While Washington and Beijing prepare for a high-level meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, he argues that China has responded to global turbulence with strategic calm, in contrast to Europe’s reactive posture.

According to the analysis, China anticipated the erosion of global rules-based systems years ago and instead built resilience through large-scale stockpiling of oil, food and semiconductors, while also securing dominance in critical supply chains such as rare earths, batteries and renewable energy components. Leonard contends that this has left Europe structurally exposed at a time of heightened geopolitical fragmentation.

He highlights Europe’s reliance on Chinese inputs in key sectors, noting that Beijing dominates much of the electric vehicle, solar panel and battery manufacturing ecosystem. In defence-related industries, he warns that Europe is similarly dependent on Chinese-controlled supply chains, including drones and magnesium, a material essential for military production. This, he argues, creates strategic vulnerabilities that could be exploited in a crisis.

The commentary also criticises Europe’s long-standing reliance on external frameworks such as NATO, the World Trade Organization and global energy markets, suggesting that this dependence has limited its ability to respond independently to systemic shocks. Leonard argues that while China has increasingly “walled off” parts of its domestic market and pursued industrial self-sufficiency, Europe has remained exposed through open trade and capital flows.

To address these risks, he calls for a more assertive European industrial and trade strategy. This includes redirecting investment towards domestic production in green technologies, artificial intelligence and defence, as well as building strategic reserves of critical materials. He also suggests that the European Union should be willing to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially up to 30%, and use regulatory instruments such as the Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act to constrain large Chinese technology firms operating in Europe.

More controversially, Leonard argues that Europe possesses stronger economic leverage than it currently uses, including the potential to restrict access to European aerospace software systems that support parts of China’s commercial aviation fleet.

Ultimately, the piece concludes that Europe must move from preserving global order to navigating instability directly, adopting a more self-reliant model to avoid long-term industrial decline and geopolitical marginalisation.

By Aghakazim Guliyev