Analysts forecast further decline in Brent crude prices in 2026

Analysts expect the average price of Brent crude oil to decline by about 10% in 2026 to $62.1 per barrel, according to a review by consulting firm Kept cited by the Russian business daily Vedomosti.

The forecast is based on consensus estimates from around 60 analytical firms, agencies, and investment banks, the publication said.

Kept noted that oil prices fell sharply last year, with the average price dropping to $69.1 per barrel in 2025 from $80.5 in 2024. The decline was attributed to a significant surplus of supply over demand in the global oil market, driven by production growth estimated at 2.9 to 3 million barrels per day, bringing total output to between 107.7 million and 108.7 million barrels per day.

According to the review, production growth was led by countries including the United States, Canada, and Guyana. Output accelerated further in the final months of 2025, while Brent prices fell to around $63 per barrel in December, their lowest level since 2021.

Analysts expect the oil market surplus to persist in 2026. Although the pace of supply growth is projected to slow and demand is expected to increase, rising crude inventories are likely to continue exerting downward pressure on prices.

Brent crude is currently trading at around $66 per barrel. Oil prices fell by roughly 5% earlier this week following statements by Iranian and U.S. officials indicating readiness to engage in negotiations.

By Sabina Mammadli