Analysts warn Ukraine conflict may haunt Trump like Afghanistan did Biden

The ongoing war in Ukraine is presenting a complex political challenge for President Donald Trump, with analysts warning it could become a burden similar to the Afghanistan conflict for President Joe Biden, according to the latest analysis by Bloomberg.

Although the two conflicts differ significantly — most notably because the US has no troops deployed in Ukraine — Trump faces the dilemma of resolving an entrenched conflict without becoming entangled or blamed for its outcome.

Nearly six months into his administration, Trump has struggled to fulfil his campaign promise to quickly end the war. Meanwhile, Russia has escalated deadly attacks on Ukraine, prompting renewed US weapons shipments and economic sanctions.

“Trump’s been in charge of US policy for almost six months, and the war continues, and now it’s on Trump,” said John Herbst, former US ambassador to Ukraine and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “He understands that he could get nailed big time if Putin wins on his watch.”

Despite distancing himself from the conflict’s origins, Trump acknowledged at a recent meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that the war is not of his making. “It wasn’t my war — it was Biden’s war. It’s not my war. I’m trying to get you out of it,” Trump said.

The president now faces a difficult choice: deepening US involvement risks alienating his “America First” base, while limiting support to Ukraine could invite criticism of weakness and allow Russian advances.

Before Trump’s re-election, commentators warned Republicans about the political risks of withholding aid. Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen urged party members to support Ukraine to avoid blame akin to Biden’s for Kabul. “For Republicans, a time for choosing has arrived: Unless you want to be blamed for the fall of Kyiv the way Biden is blamed for the fall of Kabul, send military aid to Ukraine,” he wrote.

Similarly, Council on Foreign Relations President Michael Froman cautioned that a rushed deal could undermine Trump’s peacemaker image. “If you thought the optics of the Taliban parading American Humvees through Kabul looked bad, imagine the Russians driving a convoy of Abrams tanks through Kharkiv,” he said earlier this year.

Last week, Trump reversed an earlier pause on arms shipments to Ukraine, announcing billions of dollars in US weapons sales to Kyiv. He also issued a 50-day deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire or face new sanctions.

“President Trump wants to stop the killing, which is why he is selling American-made weapons to NATO members and threatening Putin with biting tariffs and sanctions if he does not agree to a ceasefire,” said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly.

However, some of Trump’s closest allies warn that increased military support could backfire politically. Former strategist Steve Bannon said deeper involvement could make the conflict “Trump’s war,” opening him to criticism from multiple sides.

“If President Trump sells them offensive weapons that can strike deep inside of Russia, I don’t see how you avoid it becoming Trump’s war,” Bannon said. “The media, the Ukrainians, the Russians and the Neocons would all say it’s Trump’s war.”

As the conflict enters its fourth year, there is little indication of a swift resolution. Analysts note that while a full Russian takeover of Ukraine remains unlikely, the war’s persistence threatens to define Trump’s presidency much like Afghanistan defined Biden’s.

By Tamilla Hasanova