Armenia's EU gamble amid looming food crisis Russian media on Pashinyan’s shifting stance

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has called on the government to find alternative routes for food supply to the country. Yerevan aims to reduce its dependence on the Russian market, but so far, it sees no feasible alternatives. However, the country has not abandoned its intention to join the European Union, which could lead to a food crisis.

In a recent article, NEWS.ru analyzes why Pashinyan is willing to condemn his fellow citizens to hunger.

The article highlights that on February 18, the head of the Armenian parliament's commission on European integration, Arman Egoyan, stated that a referendum would not be required for the adoption of the bill on Armenia’s accession to the European Union, thus reaffirming Yerevan's commitment to the course of European integration.

The bill on Armenia's EU membership was prepared by the civic initiative group "EuroReferendum," which collected 60,000 signatures, surpassing the required 50,000 for the proposal to be introduced to parliament. On January 9, the document was discussed at a government meeting and subsequently forwarded to the legislative body for further deliberation.

Under what conditions can Armenia join the European Union?

Joining the European Union is a very lengthy process, stated Armenian political scientist Grant Mikaelyan in an interview with NEWS.ru.

"I remind you that Armenia does not share a border with the European Union. Therefore, it is impossible to talk about the republic’s accession to the EU unless Georgia is also accepted, as this country was considered the route through which Armenia would connect logistically and politically with the EU. Reorienting towards Türkiye is a very interesting shift in the country’s entire policy. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pashinyan decides to go down this path," Mikaelyan said.

He also pointed out that the EU is not ready to accept Armenia, as there is already a queue of countries that have long officially applied for membership. According to him, Armenia is not even on this list.

"From the EU's side, the expansion process is practically halted, and in fact, it recently lost the United Kingdom," the political scientist reminded.

As Politico noted, the process of joining the EU can take decades, as it involves six so-called clusters, divided into 35 "chapters." Each chapter is assessed based on how well the candidate country meets the EU's criteria across a broad range of political areas, such as the development of democratic institutions, judicial systems, respect for fundamental rights and freedoms, and so on.

What challenges will Yerevan face if it joins the EU?

At a government meeting on February 18, Pashinyan called for finding alternative supply routes for key goods. While the Armenian prime minister did not provide specific details, he emphasized that the authorities "must be as flexible as possible" in the area of food security, highlighting the importance of encouraging local production. Among other topics discussed at the meeting was the calculation of minimum food baskets for different age groups in the population.

Currently, Armenia is critically dependent on grain imports from Russia, and the local market satisfies only a minimal portion of the country's needs, especially after the loss of Karabakh. Almost all sunflower oil and a portion of sugar are also imported from Russia.

It seems that the gradual realization of the true cost of aspirations to join the EU has prompted the Armenian authorities to begin rethinking the traditional food delivery routes to the country.

What prevents Yerevan from being in both the EU and the EAEU?

Cooperation within both the EU and the EAEU cannot be combined, as these are free trade zones that protect their markets from goods coming from other zones, explained Nikolai Silaev, senior researcher at the Centre for Caucasus Problems and Regional Security at MGIMO, in an interview with NEWS.ru. "If Armenia were to be part of both, a gap in customs protection would arise. Additionally, if Yerevan joins the free trade area, it would be required by the EU to impose sanctions against Russia in full. This would end Armenia's trade with Russia, as well as its participation in the Eurasian Union," he said.

According to Silaev, if Armenia chooses the European path, it would not be able to quickly reorient its economy and would face serious consequences, both economic and social.

"Russia is one of Armenia's key, if not the largest, trading partners. Moreover, trade turnover between Armenia and other EAEU countries accounts for a significant portion of Armenia's foreign trade. Additionally, Yerevan acquires Russian energy resources at reduced prices. One must also consider access to the EAEU labour market," the expert added.

What alternatives could Yerevan explore for food supplies from Russia?

According to the Telegram channel "Rybar," an alternative route for Armenia could be through Kazakhstan. However, this would represent another step toward deeper integration into the Turkic world, and it is unclear how ready Kazakhstan is to enter the Armenian market.

Theoretically, Armenia could replace Russian food imports by purchasing goods from Kazakhstan and other countries, noted Silaev. However, Russian products have significant market advantages, including lower production costs and established logistics.

He explained that Armenia has only two transit routes for goods—through Georgia and Iran. "Georgia could theoretically provide supplies to Yerevan in the event of a reorientation toward the EU. There's also international law regulating the status and transit for landlocked countries. As for Iran, transit through it to Armenia is not as significant as through Georgia, as Tehran is not connected to Yerevan by rail, unlike Tbilisi," Silaev remarked.

Why does Pashinyan need the theme of European integration?

The Armenian opposition believes that the issue of EU accession will become Pashinyan's main slogan in the 2026 parliamentary elections. Opponents of the Armenian prime minister consider the idea of joining the EU to be unrealistic and favour further integration into the EAEU.

Pashinyan, of course, wants to gain political points ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections and demonstrate a course toward closer ties with the EU, stated Silaev.

"But I don't understand how one can gain political capital by promising citizens a deep economic crisis and rising food prices if Armenia leaves the EAEU. If he wants to gain popularity this way, it's not the most obvious strategy," the political scientist said.

He emphasized that if Armenia chooses the European path, it will have to impose sanctions on Russia. "The consequences of such a decision are clear – weakening ties between Yerevan and Moscow. However, Russia does not plan to sever relations with Armenia. No one will do that. Moscow does not interfere in Armenia's sovereign affairs," Silaev pointed out.

Pashinyan cannot fail to understand that without Russia and the EAEU, Armenia's economy faces a severe crisis. Therefore, it is clear that his irresponsible statements about the European path are merely a cover for his desire to hold onto power at any cost, despite all his failures and setbacks. This is why Pashinyan has already started preparing for the 2026 elections.